Burgos vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Burgos 1-0 Eldense.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Burgos, 30% draw, 23% Eldense — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Burgos at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burgos vs Eldense
Line-ups
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 23Alberto DadieD
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 8GregoD
- 3Ignasi VilarrasaD
- 14David GonzálezM
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 20José GrageraM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 7Jon KarrikaburuF
- 9Álex ForésF
- 21Fermin GarciaF
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 39David Hernáiz GarcíaD
- 24S. LencinasM
- 2ÁlexD
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 11Víctor MollejoF
- 30M. MonederoG
- 1Ramón VilaG
- 17Jesús ClementeD
- 5Alex SerradellD
- 4F. SmandD
- 3Juan LariosD
- 14J. SmithM
- 15Carlos GuiraoM
- 10FidelM
- 12Roberto LópezM
- 33Aingeru OlabarrietaM
- 7Jorge RastrojoF
- 18Guillermo MachoM
- 8Marcos BustilloM
- 6Borja CalvoM
- 19A. IbarrondoF
- 24Javi MartínezM
- 11Manu NietoF
- 13JuanpaG
- 29Dinis RodriguesF
- 2Iker RecioD
Form going into Burgos vs Eldense
Burgos
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
- D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
Eldense
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
- D0-0Mallorca5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leganes29 August 2026
- D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
What these results say
- Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eldense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Burgos | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 24 |
| 16 | Eldense | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Eldense
- 29 March 2025Eldense 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 8 December 2024Burgos 1–0 EldenseSegunda División
- 10 May 2024Burgos 1–2 EldenseSegunda División
- 5 November 2023Eldense 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 22 December 2022Eldense 1–0 BurgosCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Burgos and Eldense
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés41
Eldense
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Burgos beat Eldense 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Burgos at 47%. The goal: David Gonzalez 45' for Burgos.
How the call on Burgos v Eldense has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Eldense's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Burgos win47%▲ +4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Eldense win23%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.