Mallorca vs Almeria Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Mallorca 0-1 Almeria.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Mallorca, 27% draw, 28% Almeria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Mallorca at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mallorca vs Almeria
Line-ups
- 1Arnau TenasG
- 34M. CalatayudD
- 15John NwankwoD
- 21RaílloD
- 22A. SouhmahoroD
- 8Manu MorlanesM
- 23Antoniu RocaM
- 20Pablo TorreM
- 7Álex SalaM
- 33Adrian LisoM
- 18FuentesF
- 2Guille FernándezM
- 16A. BuksaF
- 3Toni LatoD
- 4David LópezD
- 5Alberto MorenoD
- 9Abdón PratsF
- 17Arnau PuigmalM
- 6Antonio SánchezM
- 37Toni DolsG
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 22D. ChirinoD
- 21ChumiD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 6Mikel VesgaM
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 23Adri EmbarbaM
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 12Léo BaptistãoF
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 10Nico MelamedM
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 32A. PopovD
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 20Álex SolaF
- 9ThalysF
Form going into Mallorca vs Almeria
Mallorca
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II19 September 2026
- W2-0Sabadell13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Eldense5 September 2026
- W3-0AD Ceuta FC30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
Almeria
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
What these results say
- Mallorca kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mallorca had two goals or fewer.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Almeria had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mallorca | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 1 | Almeria | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Almeria
- 19 May 2024Mallorca 2–2 AlmeriaLa Liga
- 17 December 2023Almeria 0–0 MallorcaLa Liga
- 20 May 2023Almeria 3–0 MallorcaLa Liga
- 17 September 2022Mallorca 1–0 AlmeriaLa Liga
- 21 February 2021Mallorca 2–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Almeria
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes71
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria won 1–0 at Mallorca. The model had leaned towards a win for Mallorca at 45% and given a win for Almeria 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Miguel De La Fuente 35' for Almeria.
How the call on Mallorca v Almeria has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Mallorca's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Mallorca win45%▼ −5
- Draw27%=
- Almeria win28%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.