Celta Vigo vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Celta Vigo, 27% draw, 32% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Celta Vigo at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Ionuț RaduG
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 29Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javier RuedaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 6Ilaix MoribaM
- 22Javi GalánM
- 10Iago AspasF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 19Williot SwedbergF
- 2Carl StarfeltD
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
- 5Sergio CarreiraD
- 39Jones El-AbdellaouiF
- 9Ferrán JutglàF
- 1Altay BayındırG
- 4Abdoulaye FayeD
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 16Hugo GonzálezM
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 27Iñigo ArguibideD
- 29Asier OsambelaD
- 24Alejandro CatenaD
- 5Jorge HerrandoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 21Jonathan DubasinM
- 7Jon MoncayolaM
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 11Kike BarjaM
- 9Raúl García de HaroF
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 17Ante BudimirF
- 16Moi GómezF
- 10Aimar OrozM
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 35Unai SantosD
- 22Enzo BoyomoD
- 15Diego RicoD
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Valencia22 August 2026
Osasuna
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Levante24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
- 6 February 2026Celta Vigo 1–2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 26 October 2025Osasuna 2–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 21 February 2025Celta Vigo 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 1 September 2024Osasuna 3–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 4 February 2024Osasuna 0–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Osasuna
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Osasuna won 2–1 at Celta Vigo. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta Vigo at 41% and given a win for Osasuna 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: I. Aspas 14' for Celta Vigo, K. Barja 54' for Osasuna, A. Budimir (penalty) 64' for Osasuna. Sent off: M. Alonso (Celta Vigo) 51'. On expected goals it finished 0.13–2.68.