Celta Vigo vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Celta Vigo, 27% draw, 32% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Ionuț RaduG
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 29Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javier RuedaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 6Ilaix MoribaM
- 22Javi GalánM
- 10Iago AspasF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 19Williot SwedbergF
- 2Carl StarfeltD
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
- 5Sergio CarreiraD
- 39Jones El-AbdellaouiF
- 9Ferrán JutglàF
- 1Altay BayındırG
- 4Abdoulaye FayeD
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 16Hugo GonzálezM
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 27Iñigo ArguibideD
- 29Asier OsambelaD
- 24Alejandro CatenaD
- 5Jorge HerrandoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 21Jonathan DubasinM
- 7Jon MoncayolaM
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 11Kike BarjaM
- 9Raúl García de HaroF
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 17Ante BudimirF
- 16Moi GómezF
- 10Aimar OrozM
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 35Unai SantosD
- 22Enzo BoyomoD
- 15Diego RicoD
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
Celta Vigo
- D0-0away to Valencia22 August 2026
Osasuna
- D0-0Levante24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celta Vigo | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
- 27 August 2026Celta Vigo 1–2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 6 February 2026Celta Vigo 1–2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 26 October 2025Osasuna 2–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 21 February 2025Celta Vigo 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 1 September 2024Osasuna 3–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 4 February 2024Osasuna 0–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Osasuna
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Osasuna
- A. Budimir4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.