25 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Valencia vs Real Betis La Liga prediction & result

Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Valencia 0-1 Real Betis.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Valencia, 23% draw, 27% Real Betis — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Valencia at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Valencia0%Draw6%Real Betis94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ryunosuke Sato
26'
42'
Junior Firpo
🔁A. Danjumaout: F. Ugrinic
55'
🔁H. Duroout: U. Sadiq
55'
🔁P. Maffeoout: L. Rioja
55'
59'
🔁J. Firpoout: F. Garcia
59'
🔁R. Riquelmeout: Isco
71'
🔁A. Ortizout: H. Bellerin
71'
🔁C. Hernandezout: T. Parrott
79'
🔁P. Fornalsout: P. Garcia
83'
⚽P. Garciaassist: F. Garcia
🔁G. Rodriguezout: A. Dieng
88'
🔁Pepeluout: D. Otorbi
88'
Mouctar Diakhaby
89'

Match stats — Valencia vs Real Betis

42%Possession58%
16Shots15
3On target3
8Corners2
1.15xG0.7

Goals against chances

Valencia0 from 1.15 xGless than the chances were worth
Real Betis1 from 0.70 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Valencia 5-4-1
  • 1S. DimitrievskiG
  • 24P. MaffeoD
  • 5C. TarregaD
  • 18PepeluD
  • 4M. DiakhabyD
  • 21J. VazquezD
  • 39R. SatoM
  • 2G. RodriguezM
  • 8J. GuerraM
  • 7A. DanjumaM
  • 9H. DuroF
Substitutes
  • 25K. van OevelenG
  • 14J. GayaD
  • 29A. PanachD
  • 36I. CordobaD
  • 15A. DiengM
  • 23F. UgrinicM
  • 10A. AlmeidaM
  • 38J. DuraM
  • 6U. SadiqF
Coach: Carlos Corberan
Real Betis 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. VallesG
  • 12A. OrtizD
  • 3D. LlorenteD
  • 16V. GomezD
  • 23J. FirpoD
  • 6F. BernalM
  • 8P. FornalsM
  • 7AntonyM
  • 18N. DeossaM
  • 17R. RiquelmeM
  • 9C. HernandezF
Substitutes
  • 40A. de PabloG
  • 31M. GonzalezG
  • 5M. BartraD
  • 2H. BellerinD
  • 11F. GarciaD
  • 4NatanD
  • 22IscoM
  • 21M. RocaM
  • 15A. FidalgoM
Coach: Manuel Pellegrini

Form going into Valencia vs Real Betis

Valencia

  • D0-0Celta Vigo22 August 2026

Real Betis

  • W1-0Real Sociedad21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Valencia6114210-84
5Real Betis540176+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Valencia vs Real Betis

  • 25 August 2026Valencia 0–1 Real BetisLa Liga
  • 1 February 2026Real Betis 2–1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 9 November 2025Valencia 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
  • 23 May 2025Real Betis 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 23 November 2024Valencia 4–2 Real BetisLa Liga
  • 20 April 2024Valencia 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga

Leading scorers: Valencia and Real Betis

Valencia

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Real Betis

  • Rodrigo Riquelme2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.