26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result

Madrid
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad.

Before kick-off the model made it 78% Real Madrid, 13% draw, 9% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.28, 7.69 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Madrid at 78% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Madrid99%Draw1%Real Sociedad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Álvaro Carreras
10'
31'
Yangel Herrera
⚽K. Mbappeassist: F. Valverde
40'
44'
⚽L. Sucic
45+2'
Jon Aramburu
🔁A. Carrerasout: M. Cucurella
46'
57'
🔁J. Aramburuout: I. Zubeldia
57'
🔁M. Oyarzabalout: O. Oskarsson
⚽K. Mbappeassist: J. Bellingham
60'
66'
🔁Y. Herreraout: C. Soler
66'
🔁J. Ochiengout: A. Barrenetxea
⚽Vinicius Juniorassist: J. Bellingham
68'
71'
Luken Beitia
Ibrahima Konaté
73'
74'
🔁T. Kuboout: G. Guedes
🔁J. Bellinghamout: E. Camavinga
78'
🔁A. Gulerout: B. Diaz
78'
⚽K. Mbappeassist: Vinicius Junior
80'
🔁Vinicius Juniorout: Y. Diomande
84'
🔁B. Silvaout: C. Espi
86'
Eduardo Camavinga
90+4'
•Brahim Díaz
90+1'

Match stats — Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

51%Possession49%
20Shots10
11On target3
4Corners7
3.14xG0.57

Goals against chances

Real Madrid4 from 3.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
Real Sociedad1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 16I. KonateD
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 18A. CarrerasD
  • 8F. ValverdeM
  • 20B. SilvaM
  • 15A. GulerM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 7Vinicius JuniorM
  • 10K. MbappeF
Substitutes
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 26S. MestreG
  • 22A. RudigerD
  • 33M. RivasD
  • 17M. CucurellaD
  • 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 21B. DiazM
  • 29J. Cestero SanchoM
Coach: Jose Mourinho
Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. RemiroG
  • 2J. AramburuD
  • 34L. BeitiaD
  • 31J. MartinD
  • 17S. GomezD
  • 21Y. HerreraM
  • 8B. TurrientesM
  • 14T. KuboM
  • 24L. SucicM
  • 12J. OchiengM
  • 10M. OyarzabalF
Substitutes
  • 13U. MarreroG
  • 5I. ZubeldiaD
  • 16J. PachecoD
  • 3A. MunozD
  • 18C. SolerM
  • 23A. ZakharyanM
  • 28A. LebarbierM
  • 26I. AguirreM
  • 11G. GuedesF
Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo

Form going into Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Real Madrid

  • W2-1away to Espanyol22 August 2026

Real Sociedad

  • L0-1away to Real Betis21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Real Madrid6501176+1115
12Real Sociedad6213611-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

  • 26 August 2026Real Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 14 February 2026Real Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 13 September 2025Real Sociedad 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 24 May 2025Real Madrid 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 1 April 2025Real Madrid 4–4 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
  • 26 February 2025Real Sociedad 0–1 Real MadridCopa del Rey

Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Real Sociedad

Real Madrid

  • Kylian Mbappé7 goals2 assists
  • J. Bellingham3 goals2 assists

Real Sociedad

  • L. Sučić2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.