Nieciecza
vs
Stal Rzeszów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Nieciecza 2–1 Stal Rzeszów
The model makes it 54% Nieciecza, 23% draw, 23% Stal Rzeszów — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Nieciecza 2.19, Stal Rzeszów 1.25.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Nieciecza: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Nieciecza's rating is built from 14 Polish I Liga matches and Stal Rzeszów's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Nieciecza are 6th on 22 points from 14 games; Stal Rzeszów are 13th on 18 points from 14 games — I Liga.
- Nieciecza are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Chrobry Głogów.
- Stal Rzeszów are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to ŁKS Łódź.
- Last 6 meetings: Nieciecza 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Nieciecza 8–1 Stal Rzeszów.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nieciecza vs Stal Rzeszów
Has the model earned this number?
Nieciecza at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nieciecza vs Stal Rzeszów
Nieciecza
I Liga
- D2-2Chrobry Głogów7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Arka Gdynia24 October 2026
- W2-0Puszcza Niepołomice19 October 2026
- D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026
Stal Rzeszów
I Liga
- L0-1away to ŁKS Łódź8 November 2026
- D2-2Puszcza Niepołomice2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Podbeskidzie25 October 2026
- W4-3away to Pogoń Siedlce18 October 2026
- L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026
What these results say
- Nieciecza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nieciecza | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 22 |
| 13 | Stal Rzeszów | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nieciecza
Chance to finish in the top two · 17% today
Stal Rzeszów
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Nieciecza vs Stal Rzeszów
- 24 January 2026Nieciecza 8–1 Stal RzeszówFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2025Nieciecza 3–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 14 September 2024Stal Rzeszów 1–2 NiecieczaI Liga
- 11 May 2024Stal Rzeszów 4–2 NiecieczaI Liga
- 10 February 2024Nieciecza 1–1 Stal RzeszówFriendlies Clubs
- 9 February 2024Stal Rzeszów 2–3 NiecieczaFriendlies Clubs
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nieciecza a 7.5% chance of the title and Stal Rzeszów 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nieciecza the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Nieciecza against 1.25 for Stal Rzeszów. Nieciecza's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.21 for Stal Rzeszów.
How the model reaches 54% for Nieciecza to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nieciecza to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Nieciecza's ratings add 4 points and Stal Rzeszów's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Nieciecza's ratings50%+4
- Stal Rzeszów's ratings54%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Nieciecza at home · Stal Rzeszów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Nieciecza 14, Stal Rzeszów 14.
Stal Rzeszów score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Nieciecza have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Nieciecza
- at Polonia Bytom7 Dec · I Ligawin 28%
- at Ruch Chorzów12 Dec · I Ligawin 25%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce6 Feb · I Ligawin 50%
- at Warta Poznań13 Feb · I Ligawin 31%
Stal Rzeszów
- vs Warta Poznań6 Dec · I Ligawin 40%
- at Chrobry Głogów12 Dec · I Ligawin 25%
- vs Arka Gdynia6 Feb · I Ligawin 38%
- at Stal Mielec13 Feb · I Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.