Regular Season - 11 · 28 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Chippa United vs Kaizer Chiefs Premier Soccer League prediction

Sisa Dukashe Stadium, Mdantsane

Our model says: Chippa United 0–1 Kaizer Chiefs

The model makes it 28% Chippa United, 32% draw, 40% Kaizer Chiefs — fair odds of 3.57, 3.13 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).

Expected goals: Chippa United 0.85, Kaizer Chiefs 1.11.

Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Kaizer Chiefs: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Chippa United's rating is built from 39 South African Premier Soccer League matches and Kaizer Chiefs's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 546 matches.

Key facts

  • Chippa United are 7th on 11 points from 9 games; Kaizer Chiefs are 5th on 14 points from 9 games — Premier Soccer League.
  • Chippa United have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Stellenbosch.
  • Kaizer Chiefs are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Orlando Pirates.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Kaizer Chiefs 0–1 Chippa United.

More South African Premier Soccer League predictions

All South African Premier Soccer League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Chippa United vs Kaizer Chiefs

39%
Both teams to score
31%
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Chippa United win Draw Kaizer Chiefs win
  1. 0–115%
  2. 0–015%
  3. 1–114%
  4. 1–011%
  5. 0–29%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Chippa United first; the other scorelines share the remaining 23%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Kaizer Chiefs at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Chippa United vs Kaizer Chiefs

Chippa United

Premier Soccer League

  • W2-0away to Stellenbosch31 October 2026
  • L0-1Kruger United17 October 2026
  • W1-0away to TS Galaxy20 September 2026
  • D1-1Mamelodi Sundowns12 September 2026
  • D0-0Milford FC5 September 2026

Kaizer Chiefs

Premier Soccer League

  • L1-2away to Orlando Pirates31 October 2026
  • D1-1Stellenbosch13 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Golden Arrows20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Polokwane City12 September 2026
  • W3-2Siwelele6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Chippa United had two goals or fewer.
  • Kaizer Chiefs failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kaizer Chiefs scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kaizer Chiefs conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Soccer League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Chippa United925267-111
5Kaizer Chiefs93511410+414

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Chippa United

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today

Win 8%
Draw 12%
Defeat 15%

Kaizer Chiefs

Chance to finish in the top four · 50% today

Win 56%
Draw 47%
Defeat 44%

From our Premier Soccer League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Chippa United vs Kaizer Chiefs

  • 23 May 2026Kaizer Chiefs 0–1 Chippa UnitedPremier Soccer League
  • 3 December 2025Chippa United 0–0 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
  • 19 April 2025Chippa United 0–0 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
  • 15 February 2025Kaizer Chiefs 3–0 Chippa UnitedCup
  • 29 December 2024Kaizer Chiefs 1–0 Chippa UnitedPremier Soccer League
  • 6 April 2024Chippa United 2–0 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League

Leading scorers: Chippa United and Kaizer Chiefs

Chippa United

No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Kaizer Chiefs

GoalsAssists

  • M. Shabalala21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chippa United a 0% chance of the title and Kaizer Chiefs 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Chippa United Kaizer Chiefs
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
1.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.43
0.85 Model expected goals (this match) 1.11

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kaizer Chiefs the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Chippa United against 1.11 for Kaizer Chiefs. Chippa United's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.43 for Kaizer Chiefs.

Chippa United carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.49 for Kaizer Chiefs.

How the model reaches 40% for Kaizer Chiefs to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Kaizer Chiefs to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Chippa United's ratings add 4 points and Kaizer Chiefs's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground34%
  2. Home advantage29%−5
  3. Chippa United's ratings33%+4
  4. Kaizer Chiefs's ratings40%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Chippa UnitedKaizer Chiefs
9Matches9
2W 5D 2LRecord3W 5D 1L
6 0.7 per gameGoals scored14 1.6 per game
7 0.8 per gameGoals conceded10 1.1 per game
4 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9
4 of 9Failed to score1 of 9
–Penalties scored1 of 2
15 1.7 per gameYellow cards18 2.0 per game
0Red cards1
4-3-3 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 4×

Chippa United at home · Kaizer Chiefs away

5Played5
0W 3D 2LRecord1W 3D 1L
2–6Goals for – against7–6
1 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Chippa United 9, Kaizer Chiefs 9.

Chippa United scored 020112
Kaizer Chiefs conceded 112222
Kaizer Chiefs scored 140252
Chippa United conceded 000222

Kaizer Chiefs score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Chippa United have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Chippa United

  • at Marumo Gallants4 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 33%
  • vs Amazulu15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 29%
  • at Durban City20 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 28%
  • at Polokwane City9 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 27%

Kaizer Chiefs

  • at Milford FC5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 29%
  • vs TS Galaxy15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 55%
  • at Marumo Gallants19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 46%
  • vs Durban City10 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 51%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.