South African Premier Soccer League predictions

Friday 27 November — 2 matches

• 17:30 UTC Stellenbosch vs TS Galaxy — model 45% / 32% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.13 · 4.35. Edge: Stellenbosch
• 17:30 UTC Durban City vs Polokwane City — model 37% / 36% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 2.78 · 3.70. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 4 matches

• 13:30 UTC Amazulu vs Milford FC — model 38% / 34% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 2.94 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 13:30 UTC Chippa United vs Kaizer Chiefs — model 28% / 32% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.13 · 2.50. Edge: Kaizer Chiefs
• 16:00 UTC Orlando Pirates vs Golden Arrows — model 63% / 27% / 10%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.59 · 3.70 · 10.00. One-sided: Orlando Pirates
• 18:15 UTC Kruger United vs Mamelodi Sundowns — model 21% / 25% / 54%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.76 · 4.00 · 1.85. One-sided: Mamelodi Sundowns

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

• 13:30 UTC Marumo Gallants vs Richards Bay — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Sekhukhune United vs Siwelele — model 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.45 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

30–31 October: the model called the result of 5 of 8 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 66 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 55% of results.

• Marumo Gallants 3–2 Siwelele — the model said 33% / 31% / 36%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Orlando Pirates 2–1 Kaizer Chiefs — the model said 59% / 26% / 15%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Milford FC 1–0 Sekhukhune United — the model said 43% / 32% / 25%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
• Stellenbosch 0–2 Chippa United — the model said 46% / 32% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Amazulu 1–0 Golden Arrows — the model said 43% / 34% / 23%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
• Polokwane City 0–0 TS Galaxy — the model said 42% / 32% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Kruger United 3–1 Richards Bay — the model said 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Mamelodi Sundowns 4–1 Durban City — the model said 60% / 25% / 15%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

South African Premier Soccer League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Mamelodi Sundowns — 26 pts from 10 (8W 2D 0L, goals 27–9)
• 2. Orlando Pirates — 25 pts from 9 (8W 1D 0L, goals 21–2)
• 3. Amazulu — 22 pts from 9 (7W 1D 1L, goals 13–8)
• 4. Milford FC — 18 pts from 10 (5W 3D 2L, goals 11–7)
• 5. Kaizer Chiefs — 14 pts from 9 (3W 5D 1L, goals 14–10)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 167 matches left: Orlando Pirates 74.1%, Mamelodi Sundowns 24%, Amazulu 1.6%.

Leading scorers: T. Ngwenya (Amazulu) 8 goals, N. Xulu (Richards Bay) 5 goals, T. Moremi (Orlando Pirates) 5 goals.