17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Selhurst Park, London
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznan.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Crystal Palace, 25% draw, 24% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Crystal Palace at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Crystal Palace99%Draw1%Lech Poznan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Yeremy Pino
10'
⚽Chris Richardsassist: Adam Wharton
27'
⚽Jörgen Strand Larsen (pen)
34'
61'
🔁Allahyar Sayyadmaneshout: Filip Jagiełło
61'
🔁Mikael Ishakout: Y. Agnero
🔁Anan Khalailiout: Oscar Mingueza
62'
🔁Quinten Timberout: Dwight McNeil
62'
70'
🔁Joel Pereiraout: Robert Gumny
70'
🔁Patrick Walemarkout: Leo Bengtsson
🔁Chris Richardsout: Jaydee Canvot
74'
🔁Daichi Kamadaout: Ismaila Sarr
74'
🔁Jörgen Strand Larsenout: Eddie Nketiah
74'
76'
Radosław Murawski
81'
🔁Pablo Rodriguez Delgadoout: Daniel Håkans
87'
Radosław Murawski
⚽Eddie Nketiahassist: Dwight McNeil
89'

Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan

53%Possession47%
16Shots17
6On target6
6Corners5

Line-ups

Crystal Palace 3-4-3
  • 44W. BenítezG
  • 26C. RichardsD
  • 5A. DisasiD
  • 21H. AhanorD
  • 25A. KhalailiM
  • 23Q. TimberM
  • 20A. WhartonM
  • 3T. MitchellM
  • 18D. KamadaF
  • 22J. Strand LarsenF
  • 10Yeremy PinoF
Substitutes
  • 43S. WilliamsM
  • 6J. CanvotD
  • 33B. ChilwellD
  • 31R. MatthewsG
  • 11D. McNeilF
  • 30Óscar MinguezaD
  • 9E. NketiahF
  • 24D. OsorioM
  • 7I. SarrF
Coach: P. Sage
Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 27W. MońkaD
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 21Pablo RodríguezM
  • 10P. WålemarkM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 9M. IshakF
Substitutes
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 31Wiktor ObremskiG
  • 4João MoutinhoD
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 24F. JagiełłoM
  • 11D. HåkansM
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Coach: N. Frederiksen

Form going into Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan

Crystal Palace

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
  • L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026

Lech Poznan

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
  • W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
  • W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Thun27 August 2026

What these results say

  • Crystal Palace conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Crystal Palace failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Crystal Palace scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Crystal Palace412196+35
35Lech Poznan4013212-101

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan

Crystal Palace

GoalsAssists

  • Yeremy Pino30

Lech Poznan

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Crystal Palace beat Lech Poznan 4–0. The model had made a win for Crystal Palace its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Yeremy Pino 10' for Crystal Palace, Chris Richards 27' for Crystal Palace, Jörgen Strand Larsen (penalty) 34' for Crystal Palace, Eddie Nketiah 89' for Crystal Palace. Sent off: Radosław Murawski (Lech Poznan) 87'.

How the call on Crystal Palace v Lech Poznan has moved

First published on 3 Sep at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Crystal Palace win51%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Lech Poznan win24%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.