Lillestrom vs Torreense UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 1-2 Torreense.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Lillestrom, 29% draw, 26% Torreense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lillestrom at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Torreense
Line-ups
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 2L. RangerD
- 5S. FossD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 11F. ElkærD
- 29Y. IbrahimajM
- 21F. OttossonM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 26Y. PaintsilF
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 20VáF
- 22D. BassiF
- 1S. HagerupG
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 18K. KrygårdM
- 16H. MellandM
- 15G. NordhF
- 10T. Lehne OlsenF
- 3S. OttesenD
- 31AdrielG
- 22David BrunoD
- 5M. DiadieD
- 4Volnei FeltesD
- 23Javi VázquezD
- 6A. OudrhiriM
- 8Alejandro AlfaroM
- 11Manu PozoM
- 33João MarquesM
- 7D. JeanM
- 27M. AbubakariF
- 2StopiraD
- 26André SimõesM
- 45J. MutomboD
- 21Nuha JattaM
- 53Rodrigo GuerreiroD
- 17M. DrammehF
- 19K. ZoabiF
- 44S. HenriksenG
- 3Juan María AlcedoD
Form going into Lillestrom vs Torreense
Lillestrom
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
- W2-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë20 August 2026
Torreense
No earlier matches on record this season.
What these results say
- Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Torreense won 2–1 at Lillestrom. The model had leaned towards a win for Lillestrom at 45% and given a win for Torreense 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alejandro Alfaro 23' for Torreense, Manuel Pozo 49' for Torreense, Thomas Lehne Olsen 79' for Lillestrom. Sent off: Nuha Jatta (Torreense) 85'.
How the call on Lillestrom v Torreense has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Lillestrom's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lillestrom win45%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Torreense win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.