17 September 2026, 13:15 UTC

FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar Premier League prediction & result

Gazovik Stadium, Orenburg
Full time0 – 0

Final score: FC Orenburg 0-0 FC Krasnodar.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Orenburg, 31% draw, 34% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Orenburg at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Orenburg4%Draw93%FC Krasnodar3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Aleksey Tataev
17'
Danila Khotulev
20'
31'
Vitor Tormena
62'
🔁Juan Manuel Boselliout: Dmitriy Vorobyov
66'
🔁Daniil Utkinout: Magomed Ozdoev
🔁Jordhy Thompsonout: Andrey Kasadzhikov
68'
🔁Mikhail Pykhcheevout: Robert Mejia Navarrete
69'
🔁Damian Pueblaout: Renat Golybin
75'
🔁Gedeon Guzinaout: Alexandre Jesus
75'
Robert Mejia Navarrete
77'
79'
Aleksandr Chernikov
82'
🔁Ilya Vakhaniaout: Valentin Paltsev
82'
🔁Aleksandr Chernikovout: Kevin Pina
86'
Joao Batxi
89'
Jhon Cordoba
Egor Nazarenko
90'
🔁Aleksey Tataevout: Joao Silva
90+2'
Andrey Kasadzhikov
90+4'

Match stats — FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar

39%Possession61%
17Shots16
6On target1
3Corners5

Line-ups

FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. OvsyannikovG
  • 22A. LukashovD
  • 5A. TataevD
  • 4D. KhotulevD
  • 26E. TsenovD
  • 80M. PykhcheevM
  • 11E. NazarenkoM
  • 10J. ThompsonM
  • 8D. PueblaM
  • 20D. RybchinskiyM
  • 30G. GuzinaF
Substitutes
  • 63O. MinatulaevM
  • 14Robert Mejia NavarreteM
  • 3D. VedernikovD
  • 44João SilvaD
  • 2S. PoroykovD
  • 19Alexandre JesusF
  • 35A. DegtevG
  • 27Renat GolybinM
  • 7J. GonzálezF
Coach: I. Akhmetzyanov
FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. AgkatsevG
  • 40I. VakhaniaD
  • 3Vítor TormenaD
  • 5JubalD
  • 15L. OlazaD
  • 53A. ChernikovM
  • 8Douglas AugustoM
  • 23J. BoselliM
  • 47D. UtkinM
  • 11BatxiM
  • 9J. CórdobaF
Substitutes
  • 2M. RodríguezD
  • 98S. PetrovD
  • 17V. PaltsevD
  • 21M. OzdoevM
  • 6Kevin PinaM
  • 16A. KoryakinG
  • 59A. KhmarinD
  • 10D. VorobjevF
Coach: M. Musaev

Form going into FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar

FC Orenburg

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
  • D2-2Akron6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Fakel22 August 2026
  • D1-1Lokomotiv14 August 2026

FC Krasnodar

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Akron13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
  • W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala23 August 2026
  • W1-0Akhmat15 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Orenburg did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • FC Orenburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Orenburg had two goals or fewer.
  • FC Krasnodar went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Krasnodar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Krasnodar had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10FC Orenburg143831414017
4FC Krasnodar147522518+726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar

  • 17 May 2026FC Krasnodar 3–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 26 November 2025FC Krasnodar 4–0 FC OrenburgCup
  • 5 November 2025FC Orenburg 1–3 FC KrasnodarCup
  • 10 August 2025FC Orenburg 0–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 17 May 2025FC Orenburg 1–2 FC KrasnodarPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and FC Krasnodar

FC Orenburg

GoalsAssists

  • J. Thompson42

FC Krasnodar

GoalsAssists

  • J. Córdoba61
  • Batxi53
  • Christian34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Orenburg and FC Krasnodar drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Orenburg at 35% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.

How the call on FC Orenburg v FC Krasnodar has moved

First published on 3 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 35% / 31% / 34%: the biggest move is FC Krasnodar's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. FC Orenburg win35%▲ +1
  2. Draw31%▲ +2
  3. FC Krasnodar win34%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.