Europa League predictions & fixtures

Thursday 26 November — 18 matches

17:45 UTC Marseille vs Levski Sofia — model 60% / 25% / 15%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.67 · 4.00 · 6.67. One-sided: Marseille
17:45 UTC Celta Vigo vs Bournemouth — model 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.70 · 3.57 · 2.22. One-sided: Bournemouth
17:45 UTC Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — model 59% / 25% / 16%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.00 · 6.25. One-sided: Beşiktaş
17:45 UTC Olympiakos Piraeus vs AC Milan — model 33% / 31% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.23 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
17:45 UTC Plzen vs Benfica — model 22% / 27% / 51%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.55 · 3.70 · 1.96. One-sided: Benfica
17:45 UTC Red Bull Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia — model 68% / 20% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.47 · 5.00 · 8.33. One-sided: Red Bull Salzburg
17:45 UTC Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer Leverkusen — model 20% / 24% / 56%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.00 · 4.17 · 1.79. One-sided: Bayer Leverkusen
17:45 UTC Union St. Gilloise vs Lech Poznan — model 63% / 21% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.76 · 6.25. One-sided: Union St. Gilloise
20:00 UTC Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: Real Sociedad
20:00 UTC Lyon vs Lillestrom — model 66% / 22% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.52 · 4.55 · 8.33. One-sided: Lyon
20:00 UTC 1899 Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz — model 61% / 23% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.35 · 6.25. One-sided: 1899 Hoffenheim
20:00 UTC NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes — model 35% / 26% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.85 · 2.56. Edge: Rennes
20:00 UTC Juventus vs Omonia Nicosia — model 64% / 23% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.56 · 4.35 · 7.69. One-sided: Juventus
20:00 UTC Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13. Evenly matched
20:00 UTC Ferencvarosi TC vs Celje — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. Edge: Ferencvarosi TC
20:00 UTC Sunderland vs Jagiellonia — model 48% / 29% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.45 · 4.35. Edge: Sunderland
20:00 UTC OFI vs Anderlecht — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
20:00 UTC Torreense vs Celtic — model 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.70 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

4–5 November: the model called the result of 10 of 18 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 140 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 53% of results.

Rennes 0–0 Olympiakos Piraeus — the model said 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
AC Milan 0–2 Ferencvarosi TC — the model said 63% / 22% / 15%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
Anderlecht 2–0 Red Bull Salzburg — the model said 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Crystal Palace 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim — the model said 44% / 27% / 29%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Levski Sofia 1–0 Jagiellonia — the model said 34% / 32% / 34%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Lillestrom 0–1 Plzen — the model said 30% / 29% / 41%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
NEC Nijmegen 3–1 Omonia Nicosia — the model said 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Real Sociedad 1–1 Lyon — the model said 49% / 24% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Sparta Praha 1–3 Bournemouth — the model said 26% / 27% / 47%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Juventus — the model said 26% / 28% / 46%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Bayer Leverkusen 0–1 Marseille — the model said 54% / 25% / 21%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Benfica 3–1 Lech Poznan — the model said 72% / 17% / 11%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Celta Vigo 1–2 Union St. Gilloise — the model said 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Celtic 3–2 Beşiktaş — the model said 31% / 27% / 42%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–2 OFI — the model said 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Sturm Graz 2–3 Celje — the model said 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Sunderland 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb — the model said 59% / 23% / 18%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
Torreense 3–2 Ararat-Armenia — the model said 57% / 25% / 18%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

Europa League so far

Play-offs

Plzen went through against FK Crvena Zvezda, 5–4 on aggregate.
Benfica went through against Aarhus, 6–2 on aggregate.
Beşiktaş went through against Kauno Žalgiris, 3–1 on aggregate.
Lillestrom went through against Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 2–1 on aggregate.
Jagiellonia went through against FC Iberia 1999, 6–1 on aggregate.
Anderlecht went through against Kairat Almaty, 6–0 on aggregate.
Red Bull Salzburg went through against Mjallby AIF, 4–0 on aggregate.
OFI went through against CSKA Sofia, 5–0 on aggregate.
Omonia Nicosia went through against St. Truiden, 4–3 on aggregate.
Ferencvarosi TC went through against Trabzonspor, 5–0 on aggregate.
Ararat-Armenia went through against Universitatea Craiova, 2–1 on aggregate.
Lech Poznan went through against FC Thun, 9–2 on aggregate.

3rd Qualifying Round

Benfica went through against Heart of Midlothian, 7–2 on aggregate.
Beşiktaş went through against Hradec Králové, 2–0 on aggregate.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë went through against Shamrock Rovers, 6–4 on aggregate.
FC Iberia 1999 went through against Larne, 2–1 on aggregate.
Jagiellonia went through against Rangers, 3–2 on aggregate.
Anderlecht went through against PAOK, 4–2 on aggregate.
Red Bull Salzburg went through against Pafos, 4–3 on aggregate.
CSKA Sofia went through against Maccabi Tel Aviv, 4–3 on aggregate.
Omonia Nicosia went through against Lincoln Red Imps FC, 2–1 on aggregate.
Ferencvarosi TC went through against Gornik Zabrze, 2–1 on aggregate.
Universitatea Craiova went through against KuPS, 3–2 on aggregate.
Lech Poznan went through against KI Klaksvik, 6–0 on aggregate.
FC Thun went through against Vikingur Reykjavik, 5–3 on aggregate.

2nd Qualifying Round

Benfica went through against FC St. Gallen, 6–2 on aggregate.
Beşiktaş went through against FC Midtjylland, 3–0 on aggregate.
Hradec Králové went through against Tromso, 4–1 on aggregate.
Anderlecht went through against Hammarby FF, 4–2 on aggregate.
PAOK went through against Dynamo Kyiv, 5–2 on aggregate.
Pafos went through against HNK Hajduk Split, on penalties after 2–2.
CSKA Sofia went through against Qarabag, on penalties after 0–0.
Maccabi Tel Aviv went through against Sheriff Tiraspol, 6–0 on aggregate.
Ferencvarosi TC went through against Twente, 4–3 on aggregate.

Leading scorers: L. Diony (Omonia Nicosia) 5 goals, L. Joseph (Ferencvarosi TC) 4 goals, D. Beljo (Dinamo Zagreb) 4 goals.