Regular Season - 13 · 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

CS Constantine vs MC Oran Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: CS Constantine 0–1 MC Oran

The model makes it 33% CS Constantine, 28% draw, 39% MC Oran — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: CS Constantine 1.27, MC Oran 1.43.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Edge to MC Oran: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. CS Constantine's rating is built from 39 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and MC Oran's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • CS Constantine are 14th on 7 points from 9 games; MC Oran are 5th on 15 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
  • CS Constantine have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to JS Saoura.
  • MC Oran are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to MC Alger.
  • Last 6 meetings: MC Oran 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended CS Constantine 0–1 MC Oran.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: CS Constantine vs MC Oran

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

CS Constantine win Draw MC Oran win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read CS Constantine first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

MC Oran at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into CS Constantine vs MC Oran

CS Constantine

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to JS Saoura8 November 2026
  • L0-2USM Alger31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Olympique Akbou23 October 2026
  • L2-4JS El Biar17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Khenchela12 October 2026

MC Oran

Ligue 1

  • L0-2away to MC Alger4 November 2026
  • D0-0Olympique Akbou30 October 2026
  • D0-0away to JS El Biar23 October 2026
  • W1-0Khenchela17 October 2026
  • W1-0away to US Biskra13 October 2026

What these results say

  • CS Constantine did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • CS Constantine conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • CS Constantine failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for MC Oran had two goals or fewer.
  • MC Oran kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14CS Constantine92161118-77
5MC Oran843152+315

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

CS Constantine

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 49% today

Win 41%
Draw 52%
Defeat 56%

MC Oran

Chance to finish in the top two · 7% today

Win 9%
Draw 6%
Defeat 5%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: CS Constantine vs MC Oran

  • 3 April 2026CS Constantine 0–1 MC OranLigue 1
  • 1 November 2025MC Oran 1–0 CS ConstantineLigue 1
  • 22 May 2025CS Constantine 2–2 MC OranLigue 1
  • 2 November 2024MC Oran 1–0 CS ConstantineLigue 1
  • 7 June 2024CS Constantine 1–1 MC OranLigue 1
  • 11 January 2024MC Oran 1–4 CS ConstantineLigue 1

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CS Constantine a 0% chance of the title and MC Oran 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

CS Constantine MC Oran
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
2.48 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.32
1.27 Model expected goals (this match) 1.43

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives MC Oran the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for CS Constantine against 1.43 for MC Oran. CS Constantine's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.32 for MC Oran.

CS Constantine carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.37 for MC Oran.

How the model reaches 39% for MC Oran to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MC Oran to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, CS Constantine's ratings add 6 points and MC Oran's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. CS Constantine's ratings35%+6
  4. MC Oran's ratings39%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CS ConstantineMC Oran
9Matches8
2W 1D 6LRecord4W 3D 1L
11 1.2 per gameGoals scored5 0.6 per game
18 2.0 per gameGoals conceded2 0.3 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets7 of 8
4 of 9Failed to score4 of 8
–Penalties scored1 of 1
14 1.6 per gameYellow cards16 2.0 per game
2Red cards1

CS Constantine at home · MC Oran away

4Played4
2W 0D 2LRecord2W 1D 1L
9–6Goals for – against2–2
2 of 4Clean sheets3 of 4

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: CS Constantine 9, MC Oran 8.

CS Constantine scored 112321
MC Oran conceded 010001

CS Constantine score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); MC Oran have let in 0 there.

MC Oran scored 000023
CS Constantine conceded 415513

MC Oran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); CS Constantine have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

CS Constantine

  • at JS Kabylie26 Dec · Ligue 1win 14%
  • vs MC Alger31 Dec · Ligue 1win 24%

MC Oran

  • at Ben Aknoun1 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
  • at MB Rouisset26 Dec · Ligue 1win 28%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.