Regular Season - 9 · 28 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Stade Tunisien Ligue 1 prediction

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Our model says: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 Stade Tunisien

The model makes it 40% Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer, 30% draw, 30% Stade Tunisien — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1.29, Stade Tunisien 1.02.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's rating is built from 7 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and Stade Tunisien's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer are 6th on 12 points from 7 games; Stade Tunisien are 3rd on 13 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
  • Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Club Africain.
  • Stade Tunisien have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Club Africain.

More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Stade Tunisien

47%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win Draw Stade Tunisien win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Stade Tunisien

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Ligue 1

  • D0-0Club Africain7 November 2026
  • L0-1away to US Monastirienne18 October 2026
  • W1-0CS Sfaxien10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Olympique Béja13 September 2026
  • W1-0CS Hammam-Lif5 September 2026

Stade Tunisien

Ligue 1

  • W2-1Club Africain3 November 2026
  • W1-0ES Zarzis29 October 2026
  • L0-1away to US Ben Guerdane23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to ES Metlaoui11 October 2026
  • W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer had two goals or fewer.
  • Stade Tunisien won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stade Tunisien scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stade Tunisien conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer733152+312
3Stade Tunisien7412107+313

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Chance to finish in the top two · 10% today

Win 15%
Draw 7%
Defeat 3%

Stade Tunisien

Chance to finish in the top two · 23% today

Win 37%
Draw 20%
Defeat 13%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Stade Tunisien

  • 29 January 2022Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3–5 Stade TunisienCup

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stade Tunisien (third, with Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer sixth), while our numbers lean to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer rate 0.52 in attack and 1.23 in defence, Stade Tunisien 0.69 and 1.52 (lower is better in defence), so Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer a 3.2% chance of the title and Stade Tunisien 8.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer Stade Tunisien
0.52 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.69
1.23 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.52
1.29 Model expected goals (this match) 1.02

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer against 1.02 for Stade Tunisien. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.52 for Stade Tunisien.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.46 for Stade Tunisien. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's ratings take away 2 points and Stade Tunisien's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's ratings40%−2
  5. Stade Tunisien's ratings40%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Progrès Sakiet EddaïerStade Tunisien
7Matches7
3W 3D 1LRecord4W 1D 2L
5 0.7 per gameGoals scored10 1.4 per game
2 0.3 per gameGoals conceded7 1.0 per game
5 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7
3 of 7Failed to score1 of 7
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
15 2.1 per gameYellow cards10 1.4 per game
1Red cards0

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home · Stade Tunisien away

4Played4
3W 1D 0LRecord2W 0D 2L
4–0Goals for – against6–5
4 of 4Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 7, Stade Tunisien 7.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scored 211100
Stade Tunisien conceded 105010

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Stade Tunisien have let in 1 there.

Stade Tunisien scored 013024
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer conceded 001010

Stade Tunisien score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

  • at ES Zarzis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
  • vs US Ben Guerdane12 Dec · Ligue 1win 42%
  • at CA Bizertin19 Dec · Ligue 1win 36%
  • at ES Metlaoui26 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%

Stade Tunisien

  • vs ES Tunis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 40%
  • at ES Sahel12 Dec · Ligue 1win 40%
  • vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane19 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
  • at AS Marsa26 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.