Khenchela
vs
MB Rouisset
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Khenchela 0–1 MB Rouisset
The model makes it 35% Khenchela, 29% draw, 36% MB Rouisset — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Khenchela 1.23, MB Rouisset 1.26.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Khenchela and MB Rouisset are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Khenchela's rating is built from 39 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and MB Rouisset's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Khenchela are 12th on 7 points from 9 games; MB Rouisset are 4th on 15 points from 9 games — Ligue 1.
- Khenchela have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to JS Saoura.
- MB Rouisset are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to ES Setif.
- Last 3 meetings: Khenchela 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 June 2026, ended Khenchela 1–0 MB Rouisset.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Khenchela vs MB Rouisset
Has the model earned this number?
MB Rouisset at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Khenchela vs MB Rouisset
Khenchela
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to JS Saoura13 November 2026
- D1-1Témouchent8 November 2026
- L0-2away to MC Alger31 October 2026
- L0-3JS Kabylie24 October 2026
- L0-1away to MC Oran17 October 2026
MB Rouisset
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to ES Setif7 November 2026
- D1-1Ben Aknoun31 October 2026
- D1-1away to ASO Chlef24 October 2026
- W1-0JS Saoura18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Témouchent14 October 2026
What these results say
- Khenchela did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Khenchela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.
- MB Rouisset went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- MB Rouisset scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for MB Rouisset had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Khenchela | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | MB Rouisset | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Khenchela
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
MB Rouisset
Chance to finish in the top two · 7% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Khenchela vs MB Rouisset
- 5 June 2026Khenchela 1–0 MB RouissetLigue 1
- 9 January 2026MB Rouisset 2–0 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 5 December 2025Khenchela 1–0 MB RouissetCoupe Nationale
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Khenchela a 0% chance of the title and MB Rouisset 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MB Rouisset the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Khenchela against 1.26 for MB Rouisset. Khenchela's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.54 for MB Rouisset.
How the model reaches 36% for MB Rouisset to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MB Rouisset to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Khenchela's ratings add 4 points and MB Rouisset's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Khenchela's ratings32%+4
- MB Rouisset's ratings36%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Khenchela at home · MB Rouisset away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Khenchela 9, MB Rouisset 9.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Khenchela
- vs ES Setif30 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
- vs JS El Biar26 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
- at Olympique Akbou31 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
MB Rouisset
- at US Biskra30 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- vs MC Oran26 Dec · Ligue 1win 40%
- at JS El Biar31 Dec · Ligue 1win 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.