Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Tbilisi 4-0 Gagra.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Dinamo Tbilisi, 25% draw, 30% Gagra — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Tbilisi at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Line-ups
- 20Lucas FloresG
- 17P. PsaltisD
- 27N. KurdićD
- 13M. PourzitídisD
- 6Leonardo SantosD
- 8WeltonM
- 23J. KankavaM
- 22N. NinuaM
- 10G. KharaishviliM
- 7K. DoltmurzievF
- 14M. Do CoutoF
- 32L. TsikoliaM
- 11M. VatsadzeF
- 34M. GbomaduF
- 26G. GoguaM
- 33L. HouriM
- 39K. KakashviliM
- 18T. KvaratskheliaF
- 30G. Lomidze
- 37M. MakatsariaG
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 2AugustoD
- 25WandersonM
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 21alexander feikrishviliM
- 18V. BliznichenkoF
- 9D. MujiriF
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 3O. ChochiaD
- 35Alexander TimchenkoG
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 15N. Slavitsky
- 17Vinicius CesarD
- 11S. ZoidzeF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
Form going into Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Torpedo Kutaisi6 September 2026
- W2-1Dila31 August 2026
- L2-7away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius30 July 2026
- W3-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius23 July 2026
Gagra
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Tbilisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 52 | 32 | +20 | 58 |
| 9 | Gagra | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
- 14 June 2026Gagra 2–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 21 April 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 21 November 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 2–4 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 13 September 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 16 May 2025Gagra 1–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
Gagra
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dinamo Tbilisi beat Gagra 4–0. The model had made a win for Dinamo Tbilisi its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nika Ninua 3' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Giorgi Kharaishvili 35' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Giorgi Kharaishvili 45' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Numan Kurdic 64' for Dinamo Tbilisi. Sent off: augusto (Gagra) 63'.
How the call on Dinamo Tbilisi v Gagra has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is the draw, down 4 points.
- Dinamo Tbilisi win45%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −4
- Gagra win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.