Erovnuli Liga predictions

Sunday 15 November — 1 match

• 15:00 UTC Spaeri vs FC Iberia 1999 — model 26% / 27% / 47%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.70 · 2.13. Edge: FC Iberia 1999

Friday 20 November — 3 matches

• 14:00 UTC Gagra vs Dila — model 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.57 · 2.33. Edge: Dila
• 14:00 UTC Spaeri vs Meshakhte — model 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.57 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Dinamo Tbilisi vs Torpedo Kutaisi — model 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.00 · 4.00. Edge: Dinamo Tbilisi

Saturday 21 November — 2 matches

• 10:00 UTC Samgurali vs FC Iberia 1999 — model 26% / 26% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.85 · 3.85 · 2.08. Edge: FC Iberia 1999
• 15:00 UTC Dinamo Batumi vs Rustavi — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Tuesday 24 November — 1 match

• 15:00 UTC Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi — model 20% / 28% / 52%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.00 · 3.57 · 1.92. One-sided: Dinamo Tbilisi

Wednesday 25 November — 2 matches

• 09:30 UTC Samgurali vs Torpedo Kutaisi — model 32% / 24% / 44%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 4.17 · 2.27. Edge: Torpedo Kutaisi
• 15:00 UTC Rustavi vs Meshakhte — model 55% / 28% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.57 · 5.88. One-sided: Rustavi

Friday 27 November — 1 match

• 16:00 UTC Dinamo Batumi vs Dila — model 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.57. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 1 match

• 09:30 UTC Meshakhte vs Dinamo Tbilisi — model 18% / 27% / 55%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.56 · 3.70 · 1.82. One-sided: Dinamo Tbilisi

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–9 November: the model called the result of 4 of 5 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 47 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 51% of results.

• Meshakhte 2–3 Torpedo Kutaisi — the model said 25% / 27% / 48%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Spaeri 3–2 Dinamo Batumi — the model said 25% / 26% / 49%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Rustavi 2–0 Samgurali — the model said 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Dila 0–2 Dinamo Tbilisi — the model said 32% / 28% / 40%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• FC Iberia 1999 1–0 Gagra — the model said 57% / 26% / 17%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.

Erovnuli Liga so far

Top of the table

• 1. Dinamo Batumi — 59 pts from 32 (17W 8D 7L, goals 56–40)
• 2. FC Iberia 1999 — 59 pts from 32 (18W 5D 9L, goals 46–33)
• 3. Dinamo Tbilisi — 58 pts from 32 (16W 10D 6L, goals 52–32)
• 4. Rustavi — 56 pts from 32 (16W 8D 8L, goals 40–28)
• 5. Torpedo Kutaisi — 43 pts from 32 (11W 10D 11L, goals 53–44)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 20 matches left: Dinamo Tbilisi 40.6%, FC Iberia 1999 32.8%, Dinamo Batumi 21.7%.

Leading scorers: K. Andrić (Torpedo Kutaisi) 8 goals, G. Arabidze (Torpedo Kutaisi) 5 goals, Felipe Pires (Torpedo Kutaisi) 3 goals.