20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Elbasan Arena, Elbasani
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Tirana 1-1 Pafos.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Dinamo Tirana, 22% draw, 60% Pafos — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoff round tie. Second leg: Pafos v Dinamo Tirana, 27 Aug →

Pafos went through 5–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Pafos at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Tirana3%Draw91%Pafos6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Lelê
Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji
30'
38'
⚽David Luiz (pen)
39'
Domingos Quina
46'
🔁David Luizout: S. Mmaee
57'
🔁I. Sunjicout: Guga
57'
🔁D. Quinaout: A. Brito
57'
🔁N. Moumi Ngamaleuout: J. Correia
🔁M. Ayodejiout: A. Alhassan
76'
🔁E. Qardakuout: D. Metaj
76'
🔁K. Qefalijaout: I. Manellari
76'
🔁H. Berishaout: D. Fadairo
76'
⚽D. Fadairoassist: A. Alhassan
79'
Aldo Teqja
81'
Bruno Dita
81'
82'
⚽Lele (pen)
Lorenco Vila
85'
88'
🔁Leleout: Anderson Silva
🔁U. Ismailiout: B. Aniekan James
90'

Match stats — Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos

46%Possession54%
4On target4
3Corners1

Line-ups

Dinamo Tirana 4-3-3
  • 77A. TeqjaG
  • 2U. Ismaili
  • 22B. DitaD
  • 27N. AlijiD
  • 13F. PerndrecaD
  • 20M. AyodejiM
  • 10L. VilaM
  • 21K. QefalijaM
  • 29H. BerishaF
  • 11R. Silva-RichardsF
  • 8E. QardakuM
Substitutes
  • 1E. SaliG
  • 97T. Kiri
  • 5E. HoxhallariD
  • 6A. AlhassanM
  • 7A. AjzerajM
  • 16N. BletaM
  • 18D. MetajF
  • 24F. Farruku
  • 28I. ManellariM
Coach: Ilir Daja
Pafos 4-3-3
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 7BrunoD
  • 5D. GoldarD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 88PepeM
  • 26I. SunjicM
  • 8D. QuinaM
  • 13N. Moumi NgamaleuM
  • 18LeleF
  • 20BielF
Substitutes
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 82P. PetrouG
  • 3S. MmaeeD
  • 6GugaM
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 33Anderson SilvaF
  • 42G. MichaelM
  • 50A. BritoM
  • 60C. Efzona
Coach: Ricardo Sa Pinto

Form going into Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos

Dinamo Tirana

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Auda13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Auda4 August 2026
  • W3-0Aluminij30 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Aluminij23 July 2026

Pafos

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Red Bull Salzburg13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg6 August 2026
  • W2-0HNK Hajduk Split30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Dinamo Tirana scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pafos failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pafos conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Pafos had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Tirana and Pafos drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Pafos at 60% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: D. Fadairo 79' for Dinamo Tirana, Lele (penalty) 82' for Pafos.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.