Regular Season - 11 · 28 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Ligat Ha'al prediction

Netanya Stadium, Netanya

Our model says: Maccabi Netanya 1–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva

The model makes it 30% Maccabi Netanya, 25% draw, 45% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Maccabi Netanya 1.41, Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.87.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Hapoel Beer Sheva: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Maccabi Netanya's rating is built from 43 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Hapoel Beer Sheva's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 549 matches.

Key facts

  • Maccabi Netanya are 6th on 16 points from 10 games; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 3rd on 22 points from 10 games — Ligat Ha'al.
  • Maccabi Netanya are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Maccabi Haifa.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Hapoel Tel Aviv.
  • Last 6 meetings: Hapoel Beer Sheva 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 December 2025, ended Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–0 Maccabi Netanya.

More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions

All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

64%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Maccabi Netanya win Draw Hapoel Beer Sheva win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 0–27%
  5. 0–17%
  6. 2–27%
  7. 1–36%

Scores read Maccabi Netanya first; the other scorelines share the remaining 49%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Maccabi Netanya

Ligat Ha'al

  • W4-0away to Maccabi Haifa7 November 2026
  • D1-1Hapoel Jerusalem31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ironi Tiberias24 October 2026
  • W1-0Ironi Kiryat Shmona17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva10 October 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Ligat Ha'al

  • L0-1Hapoel Tel Aviv8 November 2026
  • W5-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva1 November 2026
  • W5-2away to Maccabi Haifa26 October 2026
  • W2-1Hapoel Jerusalem18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Ironi Tiberias10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Maccabi Netanya went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Maccabi Netanya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Maccabi Netanya10442168+816
3Hapoel Beer Sheva107122213+922

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Maccabi Netanya

Chance to finish in the top six · 80% today

Win 88%
Draw 80%
Defeat 76%

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 13% today

Win 17%
Draw 10%
Defeat 9%

From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • 13 December 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–0 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
  • 24 August 2025Maccabi Netanya 2–4 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
  • 27 April 2025Maccabi Netanya 2–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
  • 15 March 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–0 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
  • 22 February 2025Maccabi Netanya 1–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
  • 30 November 2024Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Maccabi Netanya and Hapoel Beer Sheva

Maccabi Netanya

GoalsAssists

  • Matheus Davó52
  • O. Bilu33

Hapoel Beer Sheva

GoalsAssists

  • I. Zlatanović50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Netanya a 0.3% chance of the title and Hapoel Beer Sheva 13.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Maccabi Netanya Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.69 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.89
1.44 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.3
1.41 Model expected goals (this match) 1.87

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Maccabi Netanya against 1.87 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Maccabi Netanya's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.3 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.

Maccabi Netanya carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.66 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.

How the model reaches 45% for Hapoel Beer Sheva to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hapoel Beer Sheva to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Maccabi Netanya's ratings add 5 points and Hapoel Beer Sheva's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage35%−2
  3. Maccabi Netanya's ratings40%+5
  4. Hapoel Beer Sheva's ratings45%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Maccabi NetanyaHapoel Beer Sheva
10Matches10
4W 4D 2LRecord7W 1D 2L
16 1.6 per gameGoals scored22 2.2 per game
8 0.8 per gameGoals conceded13 1.3 per game
4 of 10Clean sheets3 of 10
2 of 10Failed to score1 of 10
2 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3
27 2.7 per gameYellow cards34 3.4 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-3-3 8×

Maccabi Netanya at home · Hapoel Beer Sheva away

5Played5
1W 3D 1LRecord5W 0D 0L
4–4Goals for – against16–5
2 of 5Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Netanya 10, Hapoel Beer Sheva 10.

Maccabi Netanya scored 001445
Hapoel Beer Sheva conceded 112215

Maccabi Netanya score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Hapoel Beer Sheva have let in 5 there.

Hapoel Beer Sheva scored 120756
Maccabi Netanya conceded 021420

Hapoel Beer Sheva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Maccabi Netanya have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Maccabi Netanya

  • at Hapoel Tel Aviv1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 24%
  • vs Maccabi Petah Tikva5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 55%
  • at Bnei Sakhnin12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 46%
  • vs Beitar Jerusalem19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
  • at Hapoel Haifa29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 47%

Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • vs Bnei Sakhnin1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 60%
  • at Beitar Jerusalem5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 39%
  • vs Juventus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 23%
  • at Hapoel Haifa12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 59%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.