Hertha BSC
vs
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Hertha BSC 2–1 Karlsruher SC
The model makes it 67% Hertha BSC, 18% draw, 15% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Hertha BSC 2.84, Karlsruher SC 1.11.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Hertha BSC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Hertha BSC's rating is built from 45 2. Bundesliga matches and Karlsruher SC's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- Hertha BSC are top on 31 points from 11 games; Karlsruher SC are 16th on 11 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to VfL Wolfsburg.
- Karlsruher SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to VfL Bochum.
- Last 6 meetings: Hertha BSC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Karlsruher SC 2–2 Hertha BSC.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hertha BSC vs Karlsruher SC
Has the model earned this number?
Hertha BSC at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hertha BSC vs Karlsruher SC
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga
- W2-1VfL Wolfsburg7 November 2026
- W3-0away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern31 October 2026
- W1-0Arminia Bielefeld24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Holstein Kiel16 October 2026
- W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga
- L2-3away to VfL Bochum8 November 2026
- W2-11. FC Heidenheim31 October 2026
- L1-6away to 1. FC Magdeburg24 October 2026
- W4-0SV Darmstadt 9818 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026
What these results say
- Hertha BSC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Karlsruher SC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 31 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hertha BSC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 65% today
Karlsruher SC
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 31% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs Karlsruher SC
- 24 January 2026Karlsruher SC 2–2 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 10 August 2025Hertha BSC 0–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 29 March 2025Hertha BSC 3–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 26 October 2024Karlsruher SC 1–3 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 21 April 2024Karlsruher SC 3–2 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
- 11 November 2023Hertha Berlin 2–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and Karlsruher SC
Hertha BSC
GoalsAssists
- J. Brekalo55
- O. Adewumi50
- S. Grønning41
Karlsruher SC
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hertha BSC a 64.7% chance of the title and Karlsruher SC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hertha BSC the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Hertha BSC against 1.11 for Karlsruher SC. Hertha BSC's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.9 for Karlsruher SC.
How the model reaches 67% for Hertha BSC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hertha BSC to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Hertha BSC's ratings add 10 points and Karlsruher SC's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Hertha BSC's ratings54%+10
- Karlsruher SC's ratings67%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Hertha BSC at home · Karlsruher SC away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Hertha BSCKarlsruher SC
Hertha BSC are 1st after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Karlsruher SC are 16th after 11 (between 2nd and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Hertha BSC 11, Karlsruher SC 11.
Hertha BSC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Karlsruher SC have let in 5 there.
Karlsruher SC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Hertha BSC have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hertha BSC
- at Hannover 965 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
- vs SV Darmstadt 9812 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 64%
- at FC St. Pauli19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
- vs 1. FC Nürnberg16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
Karlsruher SC
- vs Holstein Kiel5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig12 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
- vs Dynamo Dresden19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.