Chaves
vs
Tondela
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Chaves 1–2 Tondela
The model makes it 36% Chaves, 26% draw, 38% Tondela — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chaves 1.55, Tondela 1.63.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Chaves and Tondela are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Chaves's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Tondela's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Chaves are 17th on 8 points from 10 games; Tondela are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
- Chaves have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Penafiel.
- Tondela have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sporting CP B.
- Last 6 meetings: Tondela 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 May 2025, ended Tondela 2–1 Chaves.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chaves vs Tondela
Has the model earned this number?
Tondela at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chaves vs Tondela
Chaves
Segunda Liga
- L2-3Penafiel7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica B31 October 2026
- W2-1Vizela23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026
Tondela
Segunda Liga
- D1-1away to Sporting CP B8 November 2026
- W3-2Felgueiras 19321 November 2026
- L1-2away to AVS25 October 2026
- W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
What these results say
- Chaves conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tondela scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Chaves | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 8 |
| 7 | Tondela | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chaves
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
Tondela
Chance to finish in the top three · 17% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Chaves vs Tondela
- 4 May 2025Tondela 2–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 21 December 2024Chaves 2–2 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 19 May 2019Tondela 5–2 ChavesPrimeira Liga
- 13 January 2019Chaves 2–1 TondelaPrimeira Liga
- 4 March 2018Tondela 2–0 ChavesPrimeira Liga
- 29 September 2017Chaves 1–1 TondelaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Chaves and Tondela
Chaves
GoalsAssists
- André Rodrigues10
Tondela
GoalsAssists
- Cascavel10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chaves a 0% chance of the title and Tondela 3.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tondela the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Chaves against 1.63 for Tondela. Chaves's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.47 for Tondela.
How the model reaches 38% for Tondela to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tondela to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Chaves's ratings add 5 points and Tondela's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Chaves's ratings34%+5
- Tondela's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Chaves at home · Tondela away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Chaves 10, Tondela 10.
Chaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Tondela have let in 2 there.
Tondela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Chaves have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Chaves
- at União de Leiria7 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 20%
- vs FC Porto B14 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Amarante20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs Torreense27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 36%
Tondela
- vs Penafiel5 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
- at Lusitânia Lourosa12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Benfica B20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Feirense27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.