El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Mokawloon 1-1 Al Ahly.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% El Mokawloon, 28% draw, 36% Al Ahly — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
El Mokawloon at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18M. FawziG
- 26KahrabaD
- 27K. Abdelfattah
- 3M. HamedD
- 23J. OchayaD
- 14M. GamalM
- 6D. DodoM
- 12O. El WahshM
- 20I. GaberM
- 29O. KamalM
- 92I. ThiamF
- 1M. Aboul-SaoudG
- 4H. ShakoushD
- 24N. HeshamD
- 28I. AdelM
- 7A. BaniouwdaF
- 99S. HusseinF
- 15M. SandouqaF
- 19A. Ouled BehiM
- 17M. RefaatF
- 1M. El ShenawyG
- 30M. HanyD
- 6Y. IbrahimD
- 26A. El GazarD
- 36A. KoukaD
- 13M. AteyaM
- 21A. MahmoudM
- 10M. BakrarM
- 25ZizoM
- 17A. BencharkiM
- 9S. BenjdidaF
- 31O. ShobeirG
- 5H. ReyadD
- 2Y. MareiD
- 19AfshaM
- 22E. AshourM
- 12A. TawfikM
- 8A. RedaD
- 14H. El ShahatM
- 27A. AbdallahF
Form going into El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly
El Mokawloon
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to El Gouna FC2 September 2026
Al Ahly
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Smouha SC3 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: El Mokawloon and Al Ahly
El Mokawloon
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Al Ahly
GoalsAssists
- Zizo32
- A. Bencharki20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
El Mokawloon and Al Ahly drew 1–1. The goals: I. Gaber (penalty) 39' for El Mokawloon, Zizo (penalty) 58' for Al Ahly. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.29.
How the call on El Mokawloon v Al Ahly has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Al Ahly's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- El Mokawloon win36%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Al Ahly win36%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.