Egyptian Premier League predictions

Monday 23 November — 2 matches

• 15:00 UTC El Gouna FC vs Zamalek SC — model 19% / 33% / 48%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.26 · 3.03 · 2.08. One-sided: Zamalek SC
• 18:00 UTC Al Ahly vs Pyramids FC — model 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.57 · 2.56. Evenly matched

Tuesday 24 November — 4 matches

• 15:00 UTC Smouha SC vs National Bank of Egypt — model 33% / 33% / 34%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.03 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
• 15:00 UTC Masr vs Abu Qair Semad — model 48% / 30% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.33 · 4.55. Edge: Masr
• 18:00 UTC Al Masry vs Asyut Petrol — model 40% / 33% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.03 · 3.70. Edge: Al Masry
• 18:00 UTC Wadi Degla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria — model 37% / 31% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.23 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Wednesday 25 November — 4 matches

• 15:00 UTC El Geish vs Future FC — model 28% / 33% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.03 · 2.56. Edge: Future FC
• 15:00 UTC El Mokawloon vs Olympic El Qanah — model 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.45 · 3.57. Edge: El Mokawloon
• 18:00 UTC Enppi vs Ceramica Cleopatra — model 26% / 26% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.85 · 3.85 · 2.08. Edge: Ceramica Cleopatra
• 18:00 UTC Ghazl El Mehalla vs Petrojet — model 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.33 · 2.63. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

28–31 October: the model called the result of 6 of 10 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 54 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 54% of results.

• National Bank of Egypt 1–1 Al Masry — the model said 38% / 30% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Zamalek SC 2–1 El Mokawloon — the model said 41% / 34% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Future FC 0–1 Al Ahly — the model said 22% / 27% / 51%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
• Pyramids FC 2–1 Wadi Degla — the model said 53% / 27% / 20%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Asyut Petrol 1–1 El Gouna FC — the model said 31% / 37% / 32%, most likely 0-0: result correct.
• Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–0 El Geish — the model said 44% / 31% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Olympic El Qanah 1–3 Enppi — the model said 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Abu Qair Semad 0–1 Ghazl El Mehalla — the model said 31% / 33% / 36%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
• Ceramica Cleopatra 2–1 Masr — the model said 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Petrojet 1–1 Smouha SC — the model said 33% / 32% / 35%, most likely 0-1: result missed.

Egyptian Premier League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Pyramids FC — 24 pts from 8 (8W 0D 0L, goals 19–4)
• 2. Al Ahly — 20 pts from 8 (6W 2D 0L, goals 15–6)
• 3. Zamalek SC — 19 pts from 8 (6W 1D 1L, goals 11–4)
• 4. Ceramica Cleopatra — 18 pts from 8 (6W 0D 2L, goals 15–8)
• 5. Al Ittihad Alexandria — 14 pts from 8 (4W 2D 2L, goals 9–6)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 110 matches left: Pyramids FC 68.8%, Al Ahly 17.9%, Zamalek SC 8%.

Leading scorers: Mahmoud Mamdouh (Future FC) 8 goals, Hossam Hassan (Al Ittihad Alexandria) 4 goals, Salah Mohsen (Al Masry) 4 goals.