Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Liverpool, 25% draw, 21% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Liverpool at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1AlissonG
- 33R. AraujoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 73R. NgumohaM
- 9A. IsakF
- 28F. WoodmanG
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 44L. ChambersD
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 53J. McConnellM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 13J. OblakG
- 18M. PubillD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 14M. LlorenteM
- 8P. BarriosM
- 6KokeM
- 10A. BaenaM
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 19J. AlvarezF
- 1J. MussoG
- 22A. GrimaldoD
- 24R. Le NormandD
- 30D. MartinezD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 3O. VargasM
- 4R. MendozaM
- 5J. CardosoM
Form going into Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
Liverpool
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Madrid scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Madrid conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 |
| 23 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Liverpool beat Atletico Madrid 2–1. The model had made a win for Liverpool its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: M. Llorente 17' for Atletico Madrid, D. Szoboszlai 40' for Liverpool, A. Mac Allister 50' for Liverpool. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.91.
How the call on Liverpool v Atletico Madrid has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Liverpool's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Liverpool win54%▲ +9
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Atletico Madrid win21%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.