Spaeri vs Rustavi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Spaeri 1-1 Rustavi.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Spaeri, 30% draw, 38% Rustavi — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Rustavi at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spaeri vs Rustavi
Line-ups
- 1B. PutkaradzeG
- 22N. ChagunavaD
- 3L. KachibaiaD
- 31G. BunturiD
- 14G. SamkharadzeD
- 5T. TsalughelashviliM
- 6T. AskuravaM
- 13S. MathenjwaD
- 19G. TsirdavaF
- 7S. GegiadzeD
- 17L. KokhreidzeF
- 23N. ChomakhidzeG
- 4G. GrigalashviliM
- 9G. TsetskhladzeF
- 16S. DzneladzeD
- 21O. GordezianiM
- 24Z. GolubianiM
- 25R. InjgiaF
- 30Z. BasilashviliF
- 38F. Osemene
- 21P. BeruashviliG
- 2S. AndghuladzeD
- 4David OliveiraD
- 3V. PatsatsiaD
- 19N. ChikovaniD
- 22Y. NakanoM
- 13A. GujabidzeM
- 23M. GambosM
- 20L. ParkadzeM
- 10P. OseiF
- 9JeanF
- 35J. RolandG
- 5K. CeijasF
- 7Jackson Kenio
- 8K. KakashviliM
- 12T. TarkashviliD
- 16G. Kakabadze
- 18N. JaparidzeF
- 24I. IakobidzeD
- 33G. Ksovreli
Form going into Spaeri vs Rustavi
Spaeri
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Meshakhte5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi30 August 2026
Rustavi
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Dinamo Batumi4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Samgurali30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spaeri | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 31 |
| 4 | Rustavi | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Spaeri and Rustavi drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rustavi at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: G. Tsirdava 26' for Spaeri, Jean 33' for Rustavi.
How the call on Spaeri v Rustavi has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 32% / 32% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Rustavi's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Spaeri win32%=
- Draw30%▼ −2
- Rustavi win38%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.