Samgurali vs Dila Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Samgurali 1-3 Dila.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Samgurali, 28% draw, 39% Dila — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dila at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samgurali vs Dila
Line-ups
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 39RyanD
- 22G. GogiaD
- 10L. GilmoreM
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 15Gean RodriguesF
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 28Claudio CebolinhaF
- 33Isac MartinsM
- 1D. KereselidzeG
- 2T. KikabidzeD
- 13Joao AraujoD
- 5M. N. Puketi
- 16M. SanyangF
- 17B. AnoffM
- 8L. MenteshashviliM
- 24M. Diouf
- 11K. GrabovskisF
- 22S. ShekiladzeF
- 9M. KanteF
- 10O. ParulavaM
- 12L. SanikidzeG
- 14G. JalaghoniaD
- 15G. KobakhidzeM
- 19B. GogoberishviliM
- 21Z. MuselianiF
- 25L. YarbroughD
- 33R. EtouD
Form going into Samgurali vs Dila
Samgurali
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
Dila
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Gagra5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 August 2026
- L0-3away to Apollon Limassol28 July 2026
- L0-4Apollon Limassol23 July 2026
What these results say
- Dila failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dila conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Dila had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samgurali | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 39 |
| 6 | Dila | 32 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Dila won 3–1 at Samgurali. The model had made a win for Dila its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Sanyang 21' for Dila, S. Shekiladze 23' for Dila, M. Kante 49' for Dila, Claudio Cebolinha 85' for Samgurali.
How the call on Samgurali v Dila has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Dila's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Samgurali win33%=
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Dila win39%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.