Regular Season - 12 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

ES Setif vs JS El Biar Ligue 1 postponed match

PostponedNot played

This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.

Before the match was called off the model made it 43% ES Setif, 25% draw, 32% JS El Biar — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: ES Setif 1.86, JS El Biar 1.52.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

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Model insights: ES Setif vs JS El Biar

66%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ES Setif win Draw JS El Biar win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 2–06%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read ES Setif first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

ES Setif at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into ES Setif vs JS El Biar

ES Setif

Ligue 1

  • D1-1MB Rouisset7 November 2026
  • W2-1away to ASO Chlef30 October 2026
  • L1-2Témouchent24 October 2026
  • D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
  • D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026

JS El Biar

Ligue 1

  • W1-0MC Alger8 November 2026
  • L0-1away to JS Kabylie30 October 2026
  • D0-0MC Oran23 October 2026
  • W4-2away to CS Constantine17 October 2026
  • L2-3CR Belouizdad12 October 2026

What these results say

  • ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Setif scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10ES Setif8233108+29
8JS El Biar93241312+111

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour JS El Biar (eighth, with ES Setif tenth), while our numbers lean to ES Setif. ES Setif rate 0.60 in attack and 1.80 in defence, JS El Biar 0.70 and 1.91 (lower is better in defence), so ES Setif have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Setif a 0.1% chance of the title and JS El Biar 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on ES Setif v JS El Biar has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is ES Setif's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. ES Setif win43%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%=
  3. JS El Biar win32%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

ES Setif JS El Biar
0.6 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
1.8 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.91
1.86 Model expected goals (this match) 1.52

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ES Setif the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for ES Setif against 1.52 for JS El Biar. ES Setif's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.91 for JS El Biar.

ES Setif carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.36 for JS El Biar. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for ES Setif to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ES Setif to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, ES Setif's ratings take away 2 points and JS El Biar's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. ES Setif's ratings44%−2
  5. JS El Biar's ratings43%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.