11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk Premier League prediction & result

Stadion Spartak, Mogilev
Full time2 – 3

Final score: FC Dnepr Mogilev 2-3 Dinamo Minsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% FC Dnepr Mogilev, 25% draw, 56% Dinamo Minsk — fair odds of 5.26, 4.00 and 1.79.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Minsk at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dnepr Mogilev0%Draw3%Dinamo Minsk97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Evgeni Malashevich
Kirill Kirilenko
8'
8'
Aleksey Vakulich
Kirill Zabelin
35'
36'
Aleksey Ivanov
🔁Kirill Kirilenkoout: Nikita Tereshchuk
45'
45'
🔁Daniil Dushevskiyout: Artem Sokolovskiy
48'
⚽Aleksandr Mikhalenko (OG)
⚽Aleksandr Selyava (OG)
53'
55'
🔁Rayan-Elie Guiberoout: Moustapha Djimet
🔁Egor Karpitskiyout: Nenad Perovic
58'
70'
⚽Evgeni Malashevichassist: karen vardanyan
🔁Nikita krasnovout: Kirill Tsepenkov
70'
71'
🔁Evgeni Malashevichout: Mikhail aleksandrov
⚽Dmitriy·Lisakovich
81'
🔁Maksim Kasarabout: Andrey Potapenko
81'
🔁Dmitriy·Lisakovichout: R. Pilecki
81'

Match stats — FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk

55%Possession45%
13Shots3
5On target3
7Corners4

Line-ups

FC Dnepr Mogilev 4-1-4-1
  • 33A. SinenkoG
  • 18A. MikhalenkoD
  • 5A. VarganovD
  • 8S. RusakD
  • 15M. KasarabD
  • 89V. HarutyunyanM
  • 88K. KirilenkoM
  • 55N. KrasnovM
  • 11D. LisakovichM
  • 10K. ZabelinM
  • 21E. KarpitskiyF
Substitutes
  • 22N. SednevG
  • 3Nenad PerovićD
  • 23A. DunaevD
  • 17A. PotapenkoM
  • 37K. TsepenkovM
  • 9E. TorosyanM
  • 27R. PiletskiyM
  • 66N. TereshchukM
  • 99V. StepanenkoF
Coach: I. Kriushenko
Dinamo Minsk 4-2-3-1
  • 1I. ShimakovichG
  • 44G. GurbanD
  • 3M. ShvetsovD
  • 12A. IvanovD
  • 24A. VakulichD
  • 8A. SelyavaM
  • 42F. AbdullahiM
  • 7E. MalashevichM
  • 5D. DushevskiyM
  • 19R. GuiberoM
  • 10K. VardanyanF
Substitutes
  • 17I. BakharF
  • 30M. DjimetF
  • 80L. GwethF
  • 13V. PolozM
  • 11G. AlykulovM
  • 27M. AleksandrovD
  • 78A. SokolovskiyM
  • 2M. DubatovkaD
  • 25A. TouréD
Coach: A. Shagoyko

Form going into FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk

FC Dnepr Mogilev

No earlier matches on record this season.

Dinamo Minsk

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0SC Braga13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to SC Braga6 August 2026
  • L0-1Neftchi Baku30 July 2026
  • W4-2away to Neftchi Baku22 July 2026

What these results say

  • Dinamo Minsk failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dinamo Minsk failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dinamo Minsk conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15FC Dnepr Mogilev28411132743-1623
3Dinamo Minsk2819455123+2861

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk

  • 24 May 2026Dinamo Minsk 3–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 16 September 2024Dinamo Minsk 2–0 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 27 April 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–2 Dinamo MinskPremier League
  • 25 January 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 Dinamo MinskFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Dinamo Minsk won 3–2 at FC Dnepr Mogilev. The model had made a win for Dinamo Minsk its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Evgeni Malashevich 6' for Dinamo Minsk, Aleksandr Mikhalenko (own goal) 48' for Dinamo Minsk, Aleksandr Selyava (own goal) 53' for FC Dnepr Mogilev, Evgeni Malashevich 70' for Dinamo Minsk, Dmitriy·Lisakovich 81' for FC Dnepr Mogilev.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Dnepr Mogilev a 91.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 78.8% after a win, 91.1% after a draw, 94.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.4%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

For Dinamo Minsk the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 40.4% going in: 46.7% after a win, 30.9% after a draw, 24.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.7%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Dnepr Mogilev v Dinamo Minsk has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 22% / 28% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 19% / 25% / 56%: the biggest move is Dinamo Minsk's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. FC Dnepr Mogilev win19%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Dinamo Minsk win56%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.