11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk Premier League prediction & result

Centralnyj Stadion, Gomel
Full time1 – 5

Final score: FC Gomel 1-5 ML Vitebsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% FC Gomel, 29% draw, 34% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Gomel at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Gomel0%Draw1%ML Vitebsk99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Artem Kontsevoyassist: Aleksandar Mesarovic
5'
⚽Artem Kontsevoyassist: Radivoj Bosić
21'
Radivoj Bosić
🔁Damir·Shaikhtdinovout: Vadim Martinkevich
24'
⚽Aleksei Gavrilovich (pen)
30'
34'
🔁Aleksandar Mesarovicout: Silas Gnaka
45'
🔁Sergei Balanovichout: Yan Skibsky
49'
⚽Denilho Cleoniseassist: Radivoj Bosić
🔁Raymond Adeolaout: Denis·Kovalevich
51'
69'
⚽Valeri Gromykoassist: Silas Gnaka
72'
🔁Valeri Gromykoout: M. Bulanov
72'
🔁Denilho Cleoniseout: Timur Ivanov
76'
🔁Radivoj Bosićout: Valery Bocherov
🔁Victor Sotnikovout: Maksim Mardas
78'
82'
⚽M. Bulanovassist: Valery Bocherov
Vladislav Lazarev
86'

Match stats — FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk

48%Possession52%
12Shots10
5On target5
3Corners4

Line-ups

FC Gomel 5-4-1
  • 44S. KleshchukG
  • 43D. ShaykhtdinovD
  • 16I. ZayatsD
  • 33V. SotnikovD
  • 4A. GavrilovichD
  • 14P. PashevichD
  • 7R. AdeolaM
  • 19D. SilinskiyM
  • 77V. LazarevM
  • 23K. DanilinM
  • 11T. SimanenkaF
Substitutes
  • 13M. MardasF
  • 21D. KovalevichM
  • 49A. KaratayG
  • 8E. BarsukovM
  • 17V. MartinkevichM
  • 3S. MatveychikD
  • 88A. RyzhchenkoG
Coach: A. Gorovtsov
ML Vitebsk 4-3-3
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 23S. BalanovichD
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 6K. GomanovD
  • 45I. MoskalenchikD
  • 55V. GromykoM
  • 4A. OdeM
  • 27A. MesarovićM
  • 10D. CleoniseF
  • 80A. KontsevoyF
  • 12R. BosićF
Substitutes
  • 3N. BaranokD
  • 15V. BocherovM
  • 99M. BulanovF
  • 8S. GnakaM
  • 7T. IvanovF
  • 5M. MohammadiD
  • 2Aleksey NoskoM
  • 30Pavel ShcherbachenyaG
  • 22Y. SkibskiyM
Coach: Juan Díaz

Form going into FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk

FC Gomel

No earlier matches on record this season.

ML Vitebsk

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Borac Banja Luka13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Borac Banja Luka6 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Sutjeska30 July 2026
  • W3-0Sutjeska23 July 2026

What these results say

  • ML Vitebsk won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ML Vitebsk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6FC Gomel2812794029+1143
1ML Vitebsk2818826119+4262

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk

  • 22 May 2026ML Vitebsk 0–0 FC GomelPremier League
  • 23 November 2025ML Vitebsk 5–0 FC GomelPremier League
  • 28 June 2025FC Gomel 0–2 ML VitebskPremier League
  • 15 February 2025FC Gomel 2–3 ML VitebskFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FC Gomel and ML Vitebsk

FC Gomel

GoalsAssists

  • V. Sotnikov22

ML Vitebsk

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 61 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

ML Vitebsk won 5–1 at FC Gomel. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Gomel at 37% and given a win for ML Vitebsk 34%. The goals: Artem Kontsevoy 1' for ML Vitebsk, Artem Kontsevoy 5' for ML Vitebsk, Aleksei Gavrilovich (penalty) 30' for FC Gomel, Denilho Cleonise 49' for ML Vitebsk, Valeri Gromyko 69' for ML Vitebsk, M. Bulanov 82' for ML Vitebsk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Gomel a 24.2% chance to finish in the top four: 34.6% after a win, 19.6% after a draw, 15.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.0%, 9.2 points lower than before the match.

For ML Vitebsk the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 38.7% going in: 50.7% after a win, 36.0% after a draw, 28.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.7%, 12 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.