Belarusian Premier League predictions

Saturday 21 November — 8 matches

• 16:00 UTC FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Vitebsk — model 34% / 31% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.23 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
• 16:00 UTC Dinamo Brest vs Naftan — model 83% / 11% / 6%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.20 · 9.09 · 16.67. One-sided: Dinamo Brest
• 16:00 UTC FC Gomel vs Bate Borisov — model 55% / 27% / 18%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.70 · 5.56. Edge: FC Gomel
• 16:00 UTC FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Torpedo Zhodino — model 65% / 21% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.76 · 7.14. One-sided: FC Isloch Minsk R.
• 16:00 UTC Dinamo Minsk vs FC Minsk — model 67% / 20% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.49 · 5.00 · 7.69. One-sided: Dinamo Minsk
• 16:00 UTC Baranovichi vs Belshina — model 51% / 25% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.00 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC ML Vitebsk vs Slavia Mozyr — model 70% / 19% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.43 · 5.26 · 9.09. One-sided: ML Vitebsk
• 16:00 UTC Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Neman — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Neman

Saturday 28 November — 8 matches

• 16:00 UTC FC Minsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — model 49% / 25% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.04 · 4.00 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC FC Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — model 49% / 29% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.45 · 4.55. Edge: FC Vitebsk
• 16:00 UTC Torpedo Zhodino vs Baranovichi — model 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.57 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Neman vs FC Gomel — model 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.45 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Bate Borisov vs FC Isloch Minsk R. — model 20% / 28% / 52%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.00 · 3.57 · 1.92. One-sided: FC Isloch Minsk R.
• 16:00 UTC Naftan vs Dinamo Minsk — model 12% / 18% / 70%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 8.33 · 5.56 · 1.43. One-sided: Dinamo Minsk
• 16:00 UTC Slavia Mozyr vs Dinamo Brest — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: Dinamo Brest
• 16:00 UTC Belshina vs ML Vitebsk — model 14% / 20% / 66%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.14 · 5.00 · 1.52. One-sided: ML Vitebsk

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 6 of 8 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 40 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 65% of results.

• FC Gomel 2–0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — the model said 53% / 26% / 21%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Naftan 0–5 ML Vitebsk — the model said 10% / 16% / 74%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
• Belshina 2–3 FC Isloch Minsk R. — the model said 18% / 23% / 59%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
• Bate Borisov 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino — the model said 34% / 31% / 35%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• FC Vitebsk 0–1 Dinamo Minsk — the model said 29% / 30% / 41%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
• Slavia Mozyr 2–0 Baranovichi — the model said 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Neman 2–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev — the model said 56% / 26% / 18%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• FC Minsk 2–2 Dinamo Brest — the model said 28% / 25% / 47%, most likely 1-2: result missed.

Belarusian Premier League so far

Top of the table

• 1. ML Vitebsk — 62 pts from 28 (18W 8D 2L, goals 61–19)
• 2. FC Isloch Minsk R. — 61 pts from 28 (18W 7D 3L, goals 54–23)
• 3. Dinamo Minsk — 61 pts from 28 (19W 4D 5L, goals 51–23)
• 4. Dinamo Brest — 51 pts from 28 (15W 6D 7L, goals 50–29)
• 5. Neman — 49 pts from 28 (15W 4D 9L, goals 35–26)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 16 matches left: ML Vitebsk 67.8%, Dinamo Minsk 16.9%, FC Isloch Minsk R. 15.3%.

Leading scorers: V. Sotnikov (FC Gomel) 2 goals, T. Lutsevich (Slavia Mozyr) 2 goals, A. Sokol (FC Minsk) 1 goal.