Hillerød
vs
Vendsyssel FF
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Hillerød 1–0 Vendsyssel FF
The model makes it 51% Hillerød, 26% draw, 23% Vendsyssel FF — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hillerød 1.75, Vendsyssel FF 1.02.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Hillerød's rating is built from 46 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Vendsyssel FF's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Hillerød are 8th on 15 points from 14 games; Vendsyssel FF are bottom on 12 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
- Hillerød have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kolding IF.
- Vendsyssel FF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AB Copenhagen.
- Last 6 meetings: Hillerød 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 August 2026, ended Vendsyssel FF 1–0 Hillerød.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hillerød vs Vendsyssel FF
Has the model earned this number?
Hillerød at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hillerød vs Vendsyssel FF
Hillerød
1. Division
- W3-1Kolding IF7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Aarhus Fremad1 November 2026
- W2-1Aalborg24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hvidovre18 October 2026
- L0-2FC Fredericia10 October 2026
Vendsyssel FF
1. Division
- L0-3away to AB Copenhagen6 November 2026
- D1-1Vejle1 November 2026
- D2-2away to Hobro23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Kolding IF16 October 2026
- L0-2HB Koge11 October 2026
What these results say
- Hillerød conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vendsyssel FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vendsyssel FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hillerød | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Vendsyssel FF | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hillerød
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Vendsyssel FF
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 67% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Hillerød vs Vendsyssel FF
- 20 August 2026Vendsyssel FF 1–0 Hillerød1. Division
- 22 May 2025Hillerød 3–1 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
- 28 March 2025Vendsyssel FF 0–0 Hillerød1. Division
- 4 October 2024Hillerød 2–2 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
- 14 September 2024Vendsyssel FF 0–3 Hillerød1. Division
- 23 February 2024Vendsyssel FF 4–4 Hillerød1. Division
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hillerød the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Hillerød against 1.02 for Vendsyssel FF. Hillerød's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.2 for Vendsyssel FF.
How the model reaches 51% for Hillerød to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hillerød to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Hillerød's ratings add 3 points and Vendsyssel FF's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Hillerød's ratings47%+3
- Vendsyssel FF's ratings51%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Hillerød at home · Vendsyssel FF away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Hillerød 14, Vendsyssel FF 14.
Hillerød score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Vendsyssel FF have let in 5 there.
Vendsyssel FF score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Hillerød have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hillerød
- vs HB Koge5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- at Hobro20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- vs Hvidovre27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- at AB Copenhagen6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 21%
Vendsyssel FF
- vs Aalborg5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 39%
- at HB Koge20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 24%
- vs Esbjerg27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs Kolding IF6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.