1. Division (Denmark) predictions & fixtures

Thursday 19 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC FC Fredericia vs Hillerød — model 57% / 26% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.75 · 3.85 · 5.88. Edge: FC Fredericia

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

18:00 UTC Kolding IF vs Aalborg — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57. Evenly matched
18:00 UTC Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55. Edge: Aarhus Fremad

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

12:30 UTC Vejle vs HB Koge — model 58% / 23% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.72 · 4.35 · 5.26. Edge: Vejle
13:00 UTC Vendsyssel FF vs Hvidovre — model 26% / 27% / 47%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.70 · 2.13. One-sided: Hvidovre
14:00 UTC Esbjerg vs AB Copenhagen — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach

Thursday 26 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Aalborg vs Esbjerg — model 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.70 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 2 matches

18:00 UTC AB Copenhagen vs Vejle — model 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.57 · 3.33. Evenly matched
18:00 UTC Hvidovre vs Kolding IF — model 57% / 25% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.75 · 4.00 · 5.56. Edge: Hvidovre

Saturday 28 November — 2 matches

12:00 UTC Hillerød vs Vendsyssel FF — model 51% / 26% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.85 · 4.35. Evenly matched
12:30 UTC HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 1 match

13:00 UTC Hobro vs FC Fredericia — model 25% / 29% / 46%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.00 · 3.45 · 2.17. One-sided: FC Fredericia

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–9 November: the model called the result of 4 of 6 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 30 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 50% of results.

Vejle 1–0 FC Fredericia — the model said 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
AB Copenhagen 3–0 Vendsyssel FF — the model said 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
HB Koge 1–1 Aalborg — the model said 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Hillerød 3–1 Kolding IF — the model said 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Hobro 0–1 Esbjerg — the model said 42% / 26% / 32%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Hvidovre 3–0 Aarhus Fremad — the model said 44% / 30% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

1. Division (Denmark) so far

Top of the table

1. Hvidovre — 32 pts from 14 (9W 5D 0L, goals 27–13)
2. Vejle — 27 pts from 14 (7W 6D 1L, goals 26–16)
3. FC Fredericia — 23 pts from 14 (6W 5D 3L, goals 21–10)
4. AB Copenhagen — 21 pts from 14 (6W 3D 5L, goals 21–15)
5. Aarhus Fremad — 18 pts from 14 (4W 6D 4L, goals 12–14)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 48 matches left: Hvidovre 72.6%, Vejle 19.1%, FC Fredericia 7.2%.