Malaga
vs
Villarreal
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Malaga 1–0 Villarreal
The model makes it 36% Malaga, 30% draw, 34% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Malaga 1.26, Villarreal 1.21.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Malaga vs Villarreal
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Malaga wins, grey are draws, red are Villarreal wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malaga at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Malaga vs Villarreal
Malaga
- D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Villarreal
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Villarreal
- 1 April 2018Malaga 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 5 November 2017Villarreal 2–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 12 February 2017Villarreal 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 10 September 2016Malaga 0–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 13 February 2016Villarreal 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 23 September 2015Malaga 0–1 VillarrealLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Malaga carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.91 for Villarreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Malaga and 1.21 for Villarreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malaga rate 0.80 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Villarreal rate 1.10 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Malaga a 0% chance of the title and Villarreal 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malaga the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Malaga against 1.21 for Villarreal. Malaga's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/0.97 for Villarreal.