Heart of Midlothian
vs
Celtic
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Heart of Midlothian 1–2 Celtic
The model makes it 31% Heart of Midlothian, 24% draw, 45% Celtic — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.59, Celtic 2.03.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Edge to Celtic: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Heart of Midlothian are 4th on 20 points from 12 games; Celtic are top on 31 points from 13 games — Premiership.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to Falkirk.
- Celtic have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kilmarnock.
- Last 6 meetings: Celtic 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 October 2026, ended Celtic 7–1 Heart of Midlothian.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic
Has the model earned this number?
Celtic at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership
- L2-5Falkirk8 November 2026
- D2-2Rangers28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Motherwell25 October 2026
- L1-7away to Celtic18 October 2026
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
Celtic
Premiership
- W1-0Kilmarnock8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Falkirk1 November 2026
- D2-2Dundee United28 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian25 October 2026
- W7-1Heart of Midlothian18 October 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
- Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celtic conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 20 |
| 1 | Celtic | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian
Celtic and Heart of Midlothian have met 7 times in the records we hold, Celtic has won 4 of them to Heart of Midlothian's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Celtic won the last one 7–1 on 18 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 10 |
| Heart of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 31 goals, an average of 4.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 18 Oct 2026
PremiershipCeltic 7–1 Heart of Midlothian - 16 May 2026
PremiershipCeltic 3–1 Heart of Midlothian - 25 Jan 2026
PremiershipHeart of Midlothian 2–2 Celtic - 7 Dec 2025
PremiershipCeltic 1–2 Heart of Midlothian - 26 Oct 2025
PremiershipHeart of Midlothian 3–1 Celtic - 29 Mar 2025
PremiershipCeltic 3–0 Heart of Midlothian - 23 Nov 2024
PremiershipHeart of Midlothian 1–4 Celtic
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Celtic's attack rates 9% above Heart of Midlothian's, and Celtic concede 34% fewer than Heart of Midlothian. That gives Celtic the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 0.94 | 1.09 |
| Heart of Midlothian | 0.86 | 1.64 |
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Celtic
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- Cláudio Braga62
- C. Miller51
- J. McPake36
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán76
- B. Nygren64
- K. Høgh33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heart of Midlothian a 1.4% chance of the title and Celtic 59.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 2.03 for Celtic. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.09 for Celtic.
How the model reaches 45% for Celtic to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Celtic to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Heart of Midlothian's ratings add 7 points and Celtic's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage30%−7
- Both sides at this match's level31%+1
- Heart of Midlothian's ratings38%+7
- Celtic's ratings45%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Heart of Midlothian at home · Celtic away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Heart of MidlothianCeltic
Heart of Midlothian are 4th after 12 Premiership matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Celtic are 1st after 13 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Heart of Midlothian 12, Celtic 13.
Heart of Midlothian score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Celtic have let in 1 there.
Celtic score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Heart of Midlothian have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Heart of Midlothian
- vs Aberdeen2 Dec · Premiershipwin 61%
- at St Mirren5 Dec · Premiershipwin 50%
Celtic
- at Dundee2 Dec · Premiershipwin 51%
- vs St Johnstone5 Dec · Premiershipwin 69%
- at Omonia Nicosia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.