FC Vaduz
vs
FC Zurich
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Vaduz 2–1 FC Zurich
The model makes it 45% FC Vaduz, 24% draw, 31% FC Zurich — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Vaduz 2.09, FC Zurich 1.67.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Vaduz's rating is built from 13 Swiss Super League matches and FC Zurich's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.
Key facts
- FC Vaduz are 11th on 10 points from 13 games; FC Zurich are 5th on 21 points from 13 games — Super League.
- FC Vaduz are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to FC Sion.
- FC Zurich are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Servette FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended FC Zurich 2–1 FC Vaduz.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich
Has the model earned this number?
FC Vaduz at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich
FC Vaduz
Super League
- L0-4FC Sion7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Grasshoppers31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Servette FC24 October 2026
- W3-0FC Basel 189311 October 2026
- L1-2FC Thun20 September 2026
FC Zurich
Super League
- D0-0away to Servette FC8 November 2026
- W5-3away to BSC Young Boys1 November 2026
- W2-1FC Luzern24 October 2026
- W4-2FC Thun10 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Vaduz had three goals or more.
- FC Vaduz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Vaduz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Switzerland Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Vaduz | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Vaduz
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
FC Zurich
Chance to finish in the top six · 75% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich
- 13 September 2026FC Zurich 2–1 FC VaduzSuper League
- 11 October 2024FC Zurich 2–2 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 10 July 2021FC Vaduz 0–0 FC ZurichFriendlies Clubs
- 21 May 2021FC Zurich 4–1 FC VaduzSuper League
- 6 February 2021FC Vaduz 3–2 FC ZurichSuper League
- 27 January 2021FC Zurich 0–1 FC VaduzSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Vaduz and FC Zurich
FC Vaduz
GoalsAssists
- M. Monsberger61
- L. Dalipi59
- Juan Cabrera50
FC Zurich
GoalsAssists
- U. Emmanuel63
- P. Keny61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Zurich (5th, with FC Vaduz 11th), while our numbers lean to FC Vaduz. FC Vaduz rate 0.73 in attack and 1.72 in defence, FC Zurich 0.64 and 1.53 (lower is better in defence), so FC Vaduz have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 11-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Vaduz the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for FC Vaduz against 1.67 for FC Zurich. FC Vaduz's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.53 for FC Zurich.
How the model reaches 45% for FC Vaduz to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for FC Vaduz to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, FC Vaduz's ratings add 1 point and FC Zurich's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- FC Vaduz's ratings45%+1
- FC Zurich's ratings45%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Vaduz at home · FC Zurich away
League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FC VaduzFC Zurich
FC Vaduz are 11th after 13 Super League matches (between 8th and 12th so far); FC Zurich are 5th after 13 (between 4th and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Vaduz 13, FC Zurich 13.
FC Vaduz score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Zurich have let in 4 there.
FC Zurich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC Vaduz have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Vaduz
- vs BSC Young Boys5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 31%
- at FC St. Gallen12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 23%
- vs FC Lugano20 Dec · Super Leaguewin 24%
- at FC Basel 189316 Jan · Super Leaguewin 33%
FC Zurich
- vs FC Lugano5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 24%
- vs Grasshoppers12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 53%
- at FC Basel 189319 Dec · Super Leaguewin 32%
- vs Lausanne17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.