FC Vitebsk
vs
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Vitebsk 1–0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
The model makes it 49% FC Vitebsk, 29% draw, 22% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FC Vitebsk 1.48, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0.81.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to FC Vitebsk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Vitebsk's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Vitebsk are 7th on 40 points from 28 games; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk are 12th on 27 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- FC Vitebsk are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dinamo Minsk.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC Gomel.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Vitebsk 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–3 FC Vitebsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Has the model earned this number?
FC Vitebsk at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
FC Vitebsk
Premier League
- L0-1Dinamo Minsk7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Brest31 October 2026
- L0-2ML Vitebsk24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Baranovichi17 October 2026
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.11 October 2026
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Premier League
- L0-2away to FC Gomel6 November 2026
- W1-0Bate Borisov30 October 2026
- D0-0FC Dnepr Mogilev25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 October 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Vitebsk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Vitebsk had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had two goals or fewer.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 40 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- 12 July 2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–3 FC VitebskPremier League
- 4 October 2025FC Vitebsk 1–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 18 May 2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–1 FC VitebskPremier League
- 16 August 2024FC Vitebsk 0–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 5 April 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–1 FC VitebskPremier League
- 9 September 2023Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 4–0 FC Vitebsk1. Division
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Vitebsk the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Vitebsk against 0.81 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. FC Vitebsk's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/2.11 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
How the model reaches 49% for FC Vitebsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Vitebsk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, FC Vitebsk's ratings add 2 points and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- FC Vitebsk's ratings44%+2
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's ratings49%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Vitebsk at home · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Vitebsk 28, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 28.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); FC Vitebsk have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.