Regular Season - 30 · 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Torpedo Zhodino vs Baranovichi Premier League prediction

Stadion Torpedo, Zhodino

Our model says: Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 Baranovichi

The model makes it 46% Torpedo Zhodino, 28% draw, 26% Baranovichi — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Torpedo Zhodino 1.60, Baranovichi 1.08.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Torpedo Zhodino's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and Baranovichi's from 28, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Torpedo Zhodino are 8th on 36 points from 28 games; Baranovichi are 11th on 31 points from 28 games — Premier League.
  • Torpedo Zhodino have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Bate Borisov.
  • Baranovichi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Slavia Mozyr.
  • Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Baranovichi 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino.

More Belarusian Premier League predictions

All Belarusian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Torpedo Zhodino vs Baranovichi

53%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Torpedo Zhodino win Draw Baranovichi win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Torpedo Zhodino first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Torpedo Zhodino at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Torpedo Zhodino vs Baranovichi

Torpedo Zhodino

Premier League

  • L0-1away to Bate Borisov7 November 2026
  • W3-0Belshina1 November 2026
  • L2-4away to Slavia Mozyr25 October 2026
  • W1-0Naftan19 October 2026
  • L0-2away to ML Vitebsk15 October 2026

Baranovichi

Premier League

  • L0-2away to Slavia Mozyr8 November 2026
  • W3-0Naftan31 October 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Minsk23 October 2026
  • L0-1FC Vitebsk17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Neman10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Baranovichi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Torpedo Zhodino28106123536-136
11Baranovichi2887133045-1531

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Torpedo Zhodino vs Baranovichi

  • 11 July 2026Baranovichi 1–0 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
  • 24 July 2019Baranovichi 1–7 Torpedo ZhodinoCoppa
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Torpedo Zhodino Baranovichi
0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.44
2.03 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.14
1.60 Model expected goals (this match) 1.08

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Torpedo Zhodino the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Torpedo Zhodino against 1.08 for Baranovichi. Torpedo Zhodino's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.14 for Baranovichi.

How the model reaches 46% for Torpedo Zhodino to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Torpedo Zhodino to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Torpedo Zhodino's ratings add 1 point and Baranovichi's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Torpedo Zhodino's ratings45%+1
  4. Baranovichi's ratings46%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Torpedo ZhodinoBaranovichi
28Matches28
10W 6D 12LRecord8W 7D 13L
35 1.3 per gameGoals scored30 1.1 per game
36 1.3 per gameGoals conceded45 1.6 per game
10 of 28Clean sheets5 of 28
11 of 28Failed to score12 of 28
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
42 1.5 per gameYellow cards45 1.6 per game
1Red cards2
3-5-2 13×Usual shape4-2-3-1 20×

Torpedo Zhodino at home · Baranovichi away

14Played14
5W 4D 5LRecord4W 3D 7L
17–12Goals for – against11–22
6 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Torpedo Zhodino 28, Baranovichi 28.

Torpedo Zhodino scored 544768
Baranovichi conceded 51346613

Torpedo Zhodino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Baranovichi have let in 13 there.

Baranovichi scored 339463
Torpedo Zhodino conceded 387685

Baranovichi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Torpedo Zhodino have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.