Regular Season - 15 · 28 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

NK Osijek vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction

Opus Arena, Osijek

Our model says: NK Osijek 1–0 HNK Rijeka

The model makes it 36% NK Osijek, 30% draw, 34% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: NK Osijek 1.21, HNK Rijeka 1.14.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: NK Osijek and HNK Rijeka are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. NK Osijek's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and HNK Rijeka's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.

Key facts

NK Osijek are 3rd on 20 points from 13 games; HNK Rijeka are 6th on 18 points from 12 games — HNL.
NK Osijek have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to HNK Hajduk Split.
HNK Rijeka are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Istra 1961.
Last 6 meetings: NK Osijek 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended HNK Rijeka 4–1 NK Osijek.

More Croatian HNL predictions

All Croatian HNL predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: NK Osijek vs HNK Rijeka

48%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

NK Osijek win Draw HNK Rijeka win

1–114%
1–011%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
2–07%

Scores read NK Osijek first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

NK Osijek at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into NK Osijek vs HNK Rijeka

NK Osijek

HNL

L0-1HNK Hajduk Split8 November 2026
W3-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 November 2026
L0-1Rudes25 October 2026
D1-1HNK Gorica17 October 2026
L1-3Istra 196110 October 2026

HNK Rijeka

HNL

L1-3away to Istra 19617 November 2026
D1-1NK Varazdin1 November 2026
L1-2away to Dinamo Zagreb27 October 2026
W2-1away to Rudes16 October 2026
L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026

What these results say

NK Osijek conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
NK Osijek failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
HNK Rijeka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
HNK Rijeka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for HNK Rijeka.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	22	18	+4	20
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	19	18	+1	18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

NK Osijek

Chance to finish in the top four · 28% today

Win 34%

Draw 27%

Defeat 22%

HNK Rijeka

Chance to finish in the top four · 60% today

Win 68%

Draw 58%

Defeat 53%

From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs HNK Rijeka

5 September 2026HNK Rijeka 4–1 NK OsijekHNL
12 April 2026HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
1 February 2026NK Osijek 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
27 October 2025HNK Rijeka 4–2 NK OsijekHNL
9 August 2025NK Osijek 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
23 April 2025HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK OsijekHNL

Leading scorers: NK Osijek and HNK Rijeka

NK Osijek

GoalsAssists

A. León61
N. Omerović50

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

T. Fruk54
D. Adu-Adjei43
S. Vignato41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Osijek a 0.2% chance of the title and HNK Rijeka 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

NK Osijek HNK Rijeka

0.55 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64

1.51 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.41

1.21 Model expected goals (this match) 1.14

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives NK Osijek the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for NK Osijek against 1.14 for HNK Rijeka. NK Osijek's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.41 for HNK Rijeka.

NK Osijek carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.46 for HNK Rijeka. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for NK Osijek to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NK Osijek to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, NK Osijek's ratings take away 3 points and HNK Rijeka's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage43%+7
Both sides at this match's level42%−1
NK Osijek's ratings39%−3
HNK Rijeka's ratings36%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

NK OsijekModelHNK Rijeka

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

69%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

42%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

21%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

48%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

NK OsijekHNK Rijeka

13Matches12

6W 2D 5LRecord5W 3D 4L

22 1.7 per gameGoals scored19 1.6 per game

18 1.4 per gameGoals conceded18 1.5 per game

4 of 13Clean sheets2 of 12

4 of 13Failed to score2 of 12

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 2

29 2.2 per gameYellow cards20 1.7 per game

1Red cards2

4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

NK Osijek at home · HNK Rijeka away

7Played7

3W 1D 3LRecord1W 2D 4L

10–8Goals for – against6–13

2 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

NK OsijekHNK Rijeka

NK Osijek are 3rd after 13 HNL matches (between 1st and 5th so far); HNK Rijeka are 6th after 12 (between 3rd and 6th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All HNL matches this season: NK Osijek 13, HNK Rijeka 12.

NK Osijek scored 815213

HNK Rijeka conceded 133354

NK Osijek score most often in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals); HNK Rijeka have let in 1 there.

HNK Rijeka scored 227340

NK Osijek conceded 123337

HNK Rijeka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); NK Osijek have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

NK Osijek

at Dinamo Zagreb6 Dec · HNLwin 12%
vs NK Varazdin13 Dec · HNLwin 36%
at Istra 196119 Dec · HNLwin 26%
at HNK Gorica23 Jan · HNLwin 36%

HNK Rijeka

vs Dinamo Zagreb3 Dec · HNLwin 27%
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb7 Dec · HNLwin 51%
at HNK Hajduk Split13 Dec · HNLwin 19%
vs NK Slaven Belupo19 Dec · HNLwin 54%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.