Regular Season - 17 · 29 November 2026, 11:15 UTC

FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven Eerste Divisie prediction

Kras Stadion, Volendam

Our model says: FC Volendam 2–1 FC Eindhoven

The model makes it 56% FC Volendam, 23% draw, 21% FC Eindhoven — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: FC Volendam 2.25, FC Eindhoven 1.18.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to FC Volendam: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Volendam's rating is built from 17 Eerste Divisie matches and FC Eindhoven's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • FC Volendam are 7th on 22 points from 15 games; FC Eindhoven are 17th on 14 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • FC Volendam have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Roda.
  • FC Eindhoven have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to VVV Venlo.
  • Last 6 meetings: FC Volendam 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 October 2026, ended FC Eindhoven 5–3 FC Volendam.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven

62%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Volendam win Draw FC Eindhoven win
  1. 2–110%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 3–17%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read FC Volendam first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Volendam at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven

FC Volendam

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-3away to Roda14 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Helmond Sport6 November 2026
  • L1-2De Graafschap30 October 2026
  • W6-2Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Waalwijk18 October 2026

FC Eindhoven

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1away to VVV Venlo14 November 2026
  • L0-3Jong Ajax6 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Helmond Sport30 October 2026
  • L1-2Jong PSV U2123 October 2026
  • L0-1Vitesse16 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Volendam scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Volendam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Volendam.
  • FC Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Eindhoven failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Eindhoven had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FC Volendam157173427+722
17FC Eindhoven154292032-1214

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

FC Volendam

Chance to finish in the top eight · 59% today

Win 64%
Draw 54%
Defeat 51%

FC Eindhoven

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today

Win 26%
Draw 33%
Defeat 38%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven

  • 27 October 2026FC Eindhoven 5–3 FC VolendamKNVB Beker
  • 10 January 2025FC Eindhoven 1–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 25 October 2024FC Volendam 4–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 6 May 2022FC Volendam 2–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 6 August 2021FC Eindhoven 2–2 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 27 February 2021FC Eindhoven 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven

FC Volendam

GoalsAssists

  • H. Veerman142
  • R. Niemeijer52

FC Eindhoven

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Volendam a 0.1% chance of the title and FC Eindhoven 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Volendam FC Eindhoven
0.72 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.53
1.85 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.92
2.25 Model expected goals (this match) 1.18

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Volendam the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for FC Volendam against 1.18 for FC Eindhoven. FC Volendam's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.92 for FC Eindhoven.

FC Volendam carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.21 for FC Eindhoven.

How the model reaches 56% for FC Volendam to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Volendam to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, FC Volendam's ratings add 6 points and FC Eindhoven's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 56%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. FC Volendam's ratings52%+6
  5. FC Eindhoven's ratings56%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FC VolendamFC Eindhoven
15Matches15
7W 1D 7LRecord4W 2D 9L
34 2.3 per gameGoals scored20 1.3 per game
27 1.8 per gameGoals conceded32 2.1 per game
3 of 15Clean sheets2 of 15
2 of 15Failed to score4 of 15
1 of 2Penalties scored–
22 1.5 per gameYellow cards27 1.8 per game
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-4-2 7×

FC Volendam at home · FC Eindhoven away

7Played7
6W 0D 1LRecord2W 1D 4L
23–7Goals for – against9–16
3 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC Volendam 15, FC Eindhoven 15.

FC Volendam scored 617677
FC Eindhoven conceded 636459
FC Eindhoven scored 122533
FC Volendam conceded 162566

FC Eindhoven score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); FC Volendam have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

FC Volendam

  • at NAC Breda6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
  • at Heracles11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 14%
  • vs Emmen18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 57%
  • vs Helmond Sport8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 61%

FC Eindhoven

  • vs Roda6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
  • at FC OSS11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
  • at Jong PSV U2121 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
  • vs Jong AZ8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.