Roda
vs
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Roda 1–0 De Graafschap
The model makes it 47% Roda, 29% draw, 24% De Graafschap — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Roda 1.47, De Graafschap 0.88.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Roda's rating is built from 55 Eerste Divisie matches and De Graafschap's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Roda are 5th on 28 points from 15 games; De Graafschap are 16th on 15 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Roda have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to FC Volendam.
- De Graafschap have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC OSS.
- Last 6 meetings: Roda 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 October 2026, ended Roda 1–0 De Graafschap.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Roda vs De Graafschap
Has the model earned this number?
Roda at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Roda vs De Graafschap
Roda
Eerste Divisie
- W3-1FC Volendam14 November 2026
- L1-5away to Heracles6 November 2026
- W2-1Jong AZ30 October 2026
- W3-2away to Almere City FC23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2FC OSS14 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Volendam30 October 2026
- D1-1Waalwijk23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
What these results say
- Roda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Roda conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Roda had three goals or more.
- De Graafschap scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for De Graafschap.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Roda | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 28 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Roda vs De Graafschap
- 27 October 2026Roda 1–0 De GraafschapKNVB Beker
- 12 December 2025De Graafschap 2–3 RodaEerste Divisie
- 15 August 2025Roda 1–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 6 April 2025De Graafschap 2–0 RodaEerste Divisie
- 1 September 2024Roda 1–4 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 19 April 2024Roda 1–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Roda and De Graafschap
Roda
GoalsAssists
- A. van den Hurk90
De Graafschap
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Roda a 0.6% chance of the title and De Graafschap 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Roda the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Roda against 0.88 for De Graafschap. Roda's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.77 for De Graafschap.
How the model reaches 47% for Roda to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Roda to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Roda's ratings add 2 points and De Graafschap's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Roda's ratings44%+2
- De Graafschap's ratings47%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Roda at home · De Graafschap away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Roda 15, De Graafschap 14.
Roda score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); De Graafschap have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Roda
- at FC Eindhoven6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- vs Den Bosch11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
- at NAC Breda18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs VVV Venlo8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
De Graafschap
- at Jong PSV U217 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs Dordrecht11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 52%
- vs Heracles18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.