13 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FK Partizan UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Full time1 – 2

Final score: FK Tobol Kostanay 1-2 FK Partizan.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% FK Tobol Kostanay, 24% draw, 36% FK Partizan — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Tobol Kostanay at 40% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Tobol Kostanay5%Draw90%FK Partizan5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽I. Chesnokovassist: L. Guerra
7'
40'
Zoran Alilović
44'
Nemanja Trifunović
46'
🔁Z. Alilovicout: A. Zekovic
46'
🔁N. Trifunovicout: I. Zubairu
46'
🔁E. Kojzekout: Jeh
47'
⚽S. Mitrovicassist: M. Vukotic
63'
Stefan Milić
🔁A. Tagybergenout: A. Talal
63'
🔁R. Asrankulovout: A. Borsic
63'
70'
🔁B. Kosticout: C. Traore
🔁U. Milovanovicout: A. Zuev
78'
81'
🔁M. Vukoticout: S. Nwulu
85'
Samson Nwulu
Nauryzbek Zhagorov
86'
90'
⚽C. Traoreassist: I. Zubairu

Match stats — FK Tobol Kostanay vs FK Partizan

55%Possession45%
4On target5
11Corners8

Line-ups

FK Tobol Kostanay 4-4-2
  • 1S. BusurmanovG
  • 21N. ZhagorovM
  • 72R. SenhadjiD
  • 5P. NdiayeD
  • 3R. AsrankulovD
  • 10I. ChesnokovM
  • 8A. TagybergenM
  • 13A. CisseM
  • 30L. GuerraM
  • 99V. LisakovichF
  • 18U. MilovanovicF
Substitutes
  • 35Y. Melikhov
  • 44D. UstimenkoG
  • 4N. CavnicD
  • 6M. MyakishM
  • 14A. TalalM
  • 17A. ZuevM
  • 19D. ZhumatM
  • 22A. MarochkinD
  • 25A. BorsicD
Coach: Miroslav Romashchenko
FK Partizan 4-1-4-1
  • 31M. KrunicG
  • 30M. RoganovicD
  • 44S. MilicD
  • 23S. MitrovicD
  • 24V. DjurdjevicD
  • 11M. VukoticM
  • 19D. SeckM
  • 90Z. AlilovicM
  • 99B. KosticM
  • 32N. Trifunovic
  • 9E. KojzekF
Substitutes
  • 1M. MilosevicG
  • 41T. BanjicG
  • 5M. MilovanovicD
  • 7C. TraoreM
  • 8A. ZekovicM
  • 20S. NwuluM
  • 33S. PetrovicD
  • 39I. ZubairuM
  • 40N. SimicD
Coach: Sasa Ilic

Form going into FK Tobol Kostanay vs FK Partizan

FK Tobol Kostanay

  • L0-3away to FK Partizan6 August 2026
  • D1-1Panevėžys30 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Panevėžys23 July 2026

FK Partizan

  • W3-0FK Tobol Kostanay6 August 2026
  • W1-0away to UNA Strassen30 July 2026
  • W4-0UNA Strassen23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FK Tobol Kostanay vs FK Partizan

  • 13 August 2026FK Tobol Kostanay 1–2 FK PartizanUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 6 August 2026FK Partizan 3–0 FK Tobol KostanayUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: FK Tobol Kostanay and FK Partizan

FK Tobol Kostanay

No leading scorers listed yet.

FK Partizan

  • E. Kojzek2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.