Ilves vs HNK Rijeka UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Ilves 1-1 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Ilves, 25% draw, 28% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 47% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ilves vs HNK Rijeka
Ilves
- W2-0Mariehamn9 August 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Rijeka6 August 2026
- W1-0Stjarnan30 July 2026
- L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W1-0Ilves6 August 2026
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Derry City30 July 2026
- W1-0Derry City23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ilves and HNK Rijeka in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Veikkausliiga · HNL
Head-to-head: Ilves vs HNK Rijeka
- 6 August 2026HNK Rijeka 1–0 IlvesUEFA Europa Conference League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Ilves and HNK Rijeka
Ilves
- T. Hytönen6 goals
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
- T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.