Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Fredrikstad, 27% draw, 28% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fredrikstad at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Line-ups
- 77M. BørsheimG
- 38I. AmundsenD
- 4F. HolméD
- 28S. OwusuD
- 16D. EidM
- 6S. Leach HolmM
- 14M. NilssonM
- 13S. SørløkkM
- 7B. ThoresenF
- 23H. SkogvoldF
- 18B. FiabemaF
- 5S. RafnD
- 30J. TorkildsenG
- 12U. FredriksenD
- 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
- 29G. WessehM
- 11L. WestF
- 21J. JezierskiM
- 9S. LaghzaouiM
- 24L. OwusuM
- 87L. ØyG
- 12C. NiyukuriD
- 4B. UtvikD
- 2M. LodeD
- 21A. HiimD
- 10S. SørliM
- 8S. ChristiansenM
- 6A. SherM
- 77O. SkarsemM
- 11D. KarlsbakkF
- 22V. HalvorsenF
- 18Bop GueyeM
- 5L. HøylandD
- 1J. PrytsG
- 33A. NibeM
- 15M. OpokuM
- 20P. ReinhardsenD
- 24S. RostedD
- 32E. WichneD
- 17N. WilliamsM
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Fredrikstad
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
- W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
What these results say
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 30 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 9 May 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 8 March 2026Fredrikstad 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFNM Cupen
- 8 November 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 1 June 2025Fredrikstad 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 28 September 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
The result against the call
Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fredrikstad at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Max Nilsson 19' for Fredrikstad, Olaus Jair Skarsem 28' for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
How the call on Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 FF has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Fredrikstad's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Fredrikstad win45%▲ +4
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Sarpsborg 08 FF win28%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.