Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Gimnasia La Plata, 23% draw, 25% River Plate — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Gimnasia La Plata at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Nelson InsfránG
- 31Bautista Barros SchelottoD
- 4Renzo GiampaoliD
- 21Enzo MartínezD
- 24Pedro SilvaD
- 25Alexis SteimbachM
- 5Ignacio MiramónM
- 18Mateo SeoaneM
- 8Nacho FernándezM
- 11Jeremías MerloM
- 29Agustín AuzmendiF
- 16Augusto MaxM
- 9Maximiliano ZalazarF
- 35Juan Cruz CortazzoD
- 10Nicolás Barros SchelottoM
- 15Harlen CastilloG
- 43Mariano OjedaD
- 37Jeremías Ezequiel LangaD
- 33Pablo AguiarM
- 7Manuel PanaroF
- 41Santiago BeltránG
- 29Gonzalo MontielD
- 28Lucas Martínez QuartaD
- 30Nicolás OtamendiD
- 21Marcos AcuñaD
- 8Mauro ArambarriM
- 44Lucas SilvaM
- 35Joaquín FreitasM
- 10Ángel CorreaM
- 26Tomás GalvánM
- 18Lucas BeltránF
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 31Facundo GonzálezD
- 19Rafael BorréF
- 11Facundo ColidioF
- 25Lautaro PereyraM
- 33Ezequiel CenturiónG
- 13Lautaro RiveroD
- 20Giovanni GonzálezD
- 36Ulises GiménezD
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
Gimnasia La Plata
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Racing Club24 July 2026
River Plate
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Barracas Central25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 31 |
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
- 14 May 2026River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 January 2026River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 November 2025River Plate 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 April 2025Gimnasia La Plata 0–3 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 March 2024River Plate 3–1 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and River Plate
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres102
- A. Auzmendi84
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimnasia La Plata beat River Plate 1–0. The model had made a win for Gimnasia La Plata its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Alexis Steimbach 80' for Gimnasia La Plata. On expected goals it finished 2.01–0.30.