9 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Atlanta United FC 2-3 Orlando City SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Atlanta United FC, 30% draw, 32% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atlanta United FC at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽David Brekalo (OG)
7'
26'
⚽Antoine Griezmannassist: Joran Gerbet
42'
David Brekalo
45'
🔁Griffin Dorseyout: Zakaria Taifi
🔁Ajani Fortuneout: Adrian Gill
45'
58'
⚽Iván Anguloassist: Martin Ojeda
58'
•Iván Angulo
🔁Tristan Muyumbaout: Luke Brennan
64'
Tomás Jacob
67'
71'
🔁Bernardo Rheinout: Tyrese Spicer
74'
🔁Martin Ojedaout: Marco Pašalić
74'
🔁Joran Gerbetout: Wilder Cartagena
77'
⚽Antoine Griezmannassist: Justin Ellis
🔁Aleksey Miranchukout: Fafà Picault
78'
🔁Paulo Díazout: Enea Mihaj
78'
🔁Breel Emboloout: Sergi Santos
78'
79'
🔁David Brekaloout: Iago Teodoro
88'
Justin Ellis
⚽Tyrese Spicer (OG)
90+7'

Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC

40%Possession60%
15Shots14
2On target7
7Corners5

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. HoyosG
  • 55T. JacobD
  • 27P. DiazD
  • 6J. AlonsoD
  • 3E. BaezD
  • 14M. AmaroM
  • 8T. MuyumbaM
  • 35A. FortuneM
  • 59A. MiranchukF
  • 36B. EmboloF
  • 10M. AlmironF
Substitutes
  • 42J. HibbertG
  • 47M. EdwardsD
  • 4E. MihajD
  • 28W. ReillyM
  • 16A. GillM
  • 20L. BrennanM
  • 22F. PicaultF
  • 30C. TogashiF
  • 19Sergio SantosF
Coach: Gerardo Martino
Orlando City SC 4-3-3
  • 71M. CrepeauG
  • 24G. DorseyD
  • 4D. BrekaloD
  • 6R. JanssonD
  • 44B. RheinD
  • 20E. AtuestaM
  • 35J. GerbetM
  • 77I. AnguloM
  • 22J. EllisF
  • 7A. GriezmannF
  • 10M. OjedaF
Substitutes
  • 12J. OteroG
  • 57Iago TeodoroD
  • 19Z. TaifiM
  • 16W. CartagenaM
  • 5Luis OtavioM
  • 87M. PasalicF
  • 9D. DikeF
  • 11TiagoF
  • 14T. SpicerF
Coach: Oscar Pareja

Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC

Atlanta United FC

  • D2-2away to Inter Miami5 September 2026
  • L0-2Charlotte29 August 2026
  • W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Minnesota United FC20 August 2026
  • W2-1New York Red Bulls15 August 2026

Orlando City SC

  • W1-0San Diego5 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Minnesota United FC30 August 2026
  • W2-1Real Salt Lake22 August 2026
  • L1-2Chicago Fire19 August 2026
  • D1-1FC Cincinnati15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC

  • 9 September 2026Atlanta United FC 2–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 19 May 2026Orlando City SC 4–1 Atlanta United FCUS Open Cup
  • 16 May 2026Orlando City SC 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 May 2025Atlanta United FC 3–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 26 April 2025Orlando City SC 3–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Atlanta United FC and Orlando City SC

Atlanta United FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

Orlando City SC

  • M. Ojeda11 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.