9 September 2026, 23:45 UTC

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result

Subaru Park, Philadelphia
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Philadelphia Union 5-0 FC Cincinnati.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Philadelphia Union, 25% draw, 25% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Philadelphia Union at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Philadelphia Union99%Draw1%FC Cincinnati0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
O. Nwobodo
40'
Evander
⚽Q. Sullivan (pen)
43'
⚽B. Damianiassist: C. Sullivan
45+2'
46'
🔁Evanderout: A. Powell
46'
🔁K. Denkeyout: T. Barlow
46'
🔁E. Echeniqueout: N. Hagglund
⚽B. Damianiassist: Q. Sullivan
49'
⚽B. Damianiassist: C. Sullivan
61'
62'
🔁G. Valenzuelaout: T. Anunga
🔁E. Alladohout: M. Iloski
66'
🔁J. Lukicout: J. Bueno
66'
🔁Q. Sullivanout: I. Vassilev
66'
•B. Damiani
72'
🔁B. Damianiout: M. Jakupovic
75'
🔁C. Sullivanout: A. Bedoya
75'
75'
🔁A. Jabbariout: S. Gidi
81'
•P. Bucha
87'
T. Anunga
⚽M. Iloski (pen)
89'

Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

66%Possession34%
20Shots1
6On target0
7Corners1

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union 4-2-2-2
  • 18A. BlakeG
  • 39F. WestfieldD
  • 44N. PierreD
  • 26N. HarrielD
  • 27K. WagnerD
  • 21D. Jean JacquesM
  • 4J. LukicM
  • 6C. SullivanM
  • 33Q. SullivanM
  • 9B. DamianiF
  • 23E. AlladohF
Substitutes
  • 76A. RickG
  • 5J. Sery LarsenD
  • 11A. BedoyaM
  • 8J. BuenoM
  • 16B. BenderM
  • 19I. VassilevM
  • 10M. IloskiF
  • 28A. AnelloF
  • 51M. JakupovicF
Coach: Ryan Richter
FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
  • 18R. CelentanoG
  • 24K. SmithD
  • 12M. RobinsonD
  • 88A. ChirilaD
  • 20P. BuchaM
  • 22G. ValenzuelaM
  • 5O. NwobodoM
  • 66E. EcheniqueM
  • 10EvanderF
  • 99A. JabbariF
  • 9K. DenkeyF
Substitutes
  • 13E. LouroG
  • 4N. HagglundD
  • 15T. HadebeD
  • 2A. PowellD
  • 27T. AnungaM
  • 11S. GidiM
  • 29B. J. Ramirez LeonD
  • 17K. MbomaF
  • 16T. BarlowF
Coach: Pat Noonan

Form going into Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union

  • W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
  • D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
  • W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026

FC Cincinnati

  • L0-4away to Nashville SC30 August 2026
  • D1-1Seattle Sounders22 August 2026
  • W2-1New York City FC19 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Orlando City SC15 August 2026
  • W4-2San Jose Earthquakes1 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

  • 9 September 2026Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 30 August 2025FC Cincinnati 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 2 March 2025Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 7 February 2025FC Cincinnati 4–1 Philadelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 October 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 13 August 2024FC Cincinnati 2–4 Philadelphia UnionLeagues Cup

Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union

  • M. Iloski12 goals2 assists

FC Cincinnati

  • K. Denkey13 goals2 assists
  • Evander12 goals8 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.