Hibernian vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 1-2 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Hibernian, 26% draw, 34% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hibernian at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Motherwell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 5W. O'HoraD
- 6J. KerrD
- 21J. ObitaD
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 3A. MayorM
- 7O. EldingF
- 9N. LoweF
- 10M. BoyleF
- 13J. SmithG
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 32J. CampbellM
- 22A. SutoF
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 4G. HanleyD
- 27K. MegwaD
- 30J. MacIntyreM
- 20R. Molotnikov
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 20D. WilliamsD
- 77W. VogtM
- 12O. PriestmanM
- 8L. FadingerM
- 45E. LongeloM
- 19I. SaidF
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 23E. WilsonD
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 24L. RossM
- 25O. WhyteM
- 27M. BoothM
- 18T. MaswanhiseF
- 11A. LowryM
- 29Z. McAllisterM
Form going into Hibernian vs Motherwell
Hibernian
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Malisheva30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Malisheva23 July 2026
Motherwell
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to HB Torshavn30 July 2026
- W2-0HB Torshavn23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Motherwell
- 16 May 2026Hibernian 0–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 21 March 2026Motherwell 0–0 HibernianPremiership
- 10 January 2026Hibernian 1–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 25 November 2025Motherwell 2–0 HibernianPremiership
- 11 January 2025Hibernian 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Motherwell
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Motherwell won 2–1 at Hibernian. The model had leaned towards a win for Hibernian at 40% and given a win for Motherwell 34%. The goals: L. Fadinger (penalty) 40' for Motherwell, M. Boyle (penalty) 56' for Hibernian, I. Said 85' for Motherwell. On expected goals it finished 1.92–2.00.