St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% St Johnstone, 23% draw, 29% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
St Johnstone at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. StewardG
- 33L. SmithD
- 5Z. MitchellD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 14M. FouldsD
- 42R. McAlearM
- 8J. HoltM
- 11S. StantonM
- 10J. GullanM
- 99R. PatonM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 20R. SinclairG
- 23L. ChalmersM
- 4M. BoyesD
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 25M. TaitM
- 7T. StevenF
- 15J. BairdD
- 17L. Lloyd
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 1M. StryjekG
- 8E. RingD
- 25E. Schilte-BrownD
- 14G. StangerD
- 21M. Schjonning-LarsenD
- 11G. KiltieM
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 20N. ClescencoM
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 9J. HugillF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 27I. OwenF
- 5M. O'Hara
- 2J. BrandonD
- 23R. MathurinF
- 15J. YfekoD
- 49B. RiceM
- 39E. BowieD
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | St Johnstone | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
- 3 May 2025St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 February 2025Kilmarnock 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 23 November 2024St Johnstone 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 11 August 2024Kilmarnock 0–3 St JohnstonePremiership
- 13 April 2024St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Kilmarnock
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler61
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Johnstone beat Kilmarnock 4–3. The model had made a win for St Johnstone its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Fowler 16' for St Johnstone, G. Kiltie 37' for Kilmarnock, C. Diabate 47' for St Johnstone, J. Hugill 49' for Kilmarnock, J. Holt (own goal) 53' for Kilmarnock, M. Schjonning-Larsen (own goal) 69' for St Johnstone, K. Fotheringham 80' for St Johnstone. On expected goals it finished 1.76–0.79.