Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Aberdeen 2-1 Heart of Midlothian.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Aberdeen, 25% draw, 19% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Aberdeen at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27M. MullerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 23L. MayoD
- 26D. HappeD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 8B. LyonsM
- 32A. AremuM
- 20T. OlusanyaM
- 25C. RonanM
- 7T. YoganeM
- 15K. NisbetF
- 1D. MitovG
- 17S. ArmstrongM
- 11L. SmithF
- 21G. MolloyD
- 10A. BriedlM
- 16D. LobbanD
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 22J. MilneD
- 53A. FasanyaF
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 6O. McEnteeD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 18H. MilneD
- 78L. MendyM
- 16B. SpittalM
- 29S. KerjotaM
- 7C. MillerM
- 10C. BragaF
- 77A. Ba-SyF
- 28Z. ClarkG
- 15J. McPakeF
- 22T. MagnussonM
- 11P. KaboreF
- 5J. McCartD
- 89A. KyziridisF
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 74R. MatoF
- 21J. WilsonF
Form going into Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian
Aberdeen
No earlier matches on record this season.
Heart of Midlothian
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Sturm Graz28 July 2026
- L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian
- 28 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 23 November 2025Aberdeen 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 4 August 2025Heart of Midlothian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 19 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–2 AberdeenFA Cup
- 12 January 2025Aberdeen 0–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Heart of Midlothian
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- Cláudio Braga62
- C. Miller51
- J. McPake36
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aberdeen beat Heart of Midlothian 2–1. The model had made a win for Aberdeen its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: O. McEntee 35' for Heart of Midlothian, L. Mayo 90' for Aberdeen, K. Nisbet (penalty) 90' for Aberdeen. Sent off: Stuart Findlay (Heart of Midlothian) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 2.32–1.36.