Falkirk vs St Mirren Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Falkirk 0-2 St Mirren.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Falkirk, 27% draw, 54% St Mirren — fair odds of 5.26, 3.70 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
St Mirren at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Falkirk vs St Mirren
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19Scott BainG
- 22Ryan StrainD
- 21Deniss MelniksD
- 5Liam HendersonD
- 17Scott TanserD
- 4Jack McMillanM
- 10Craig SibbaldM
- 18Joe GardnerM
- 14Finn YeatsM
- 12Ethan LaidlawM
- 9Ross MaclverF
- 47Aodhan DohertyF
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 23Ethan RossF
- 3Leon McCannD
- 11Paul McGovernF
- 1Nicky HogarthG
- 15Lewis NeilsonD
- 6Coll DonaldsonD
- 20Connor AllanD
- 1Jacob ChapmanG
- 2Jayden RichardsonD
- 13Alexander GogićD
- 22Marcus FraserD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 8Ryan CarrM
- 48Paul NsioM
- 10Samuel RamosM
- 88Killian PhillipsM
- 23Chris MochrieM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 20Jake YoungF
- 4Liam DonnellyM
- 16Luke ThomasM
- 7Roland IdowuM
- 27Peter UrminskyG
- 5Richard KingD
- 37Carrick McEvoyM
- 30Fraser TaylorM
- 32Luke DouglasF
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Falkirk | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Falkirk vs St Mirren
- 21 March 2026Falkirk 1–2 St MirrenPremiership
- 10 January 2026St Mirren 0–2 FalkirkPremiership
- 13 September 2025Falkirk 1–2 St MirrenPremiership
- 28 April 2018Falkirk 1–0 St MirrenChampionship
- 17 April 2018St Mirren 1–2 FalkirkChampionship
Leading scorers: Falkirk and St Mirren
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell70
St Mirren
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Mirren won 2–0 at Falkirk. The model had made a win for St Mirren its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: K. Phillips 11' for St Mirren, K. Phillips 87' for St Mirren. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.52.